The prediction of wildfire rate of spread and growth under high wind speeds and dry fuel moisture conditions is key to taking proactive actions to warn and in turn protect communities. We used two datasets of wildfires spreading under critical fire weather conditions to evaluate an existing rule of thumb that equates the forward rate of fire spread to 10% of the average open wind speed. The rule predicted the observed rates of fire spread with an overall mean absolute error of 1.7 km h⁻¹. The absolute error magnitude was consistent across the range in observed rates of fire spread, resulting in a reduction in percent error with an increase in spread rates. Mean absolute percent errors close to 20% were obtained for wildfires spreading faster than 2.0 km h⁻¹. The implications of model errors in the forecasting of fire spread with respect to community warning and safety are discussed.

预测高风速和干燥燃料湿气条件下野火蔓延和生长的速率，是采取积极措施进行警告并反过来保护社区的关键。我们使用了两个在关键火灾天气条件下蔓延的野火数据集来评估现有的经验法则，该经验法则将正向蔓延的火灾率等同于平均开放风速的10％。该规则预测了总平均绝对误差为1.7 km h ^-1的火势蔓延率。在观察到的火势蔓延率范围内，绝对误差幅度是一致的，从而导致误差百分比降低，而蔓延率则增加。野火蔓延速度超过2.0 km h ^-1时，平均绝对误差百分比接近20％。讨论了模型误差在预测火灾蔓延方面与社区预警和安全有关的含义。