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Global energy perspectives to 2060 – WEC's World Energy Scenarios 2019
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100523
T. Kober , H.-W. Schiffer , M. Densing , E. Panos

The recent signals in the energy sector indicate a major transformation taking shape in the energy sector in the decades to come. The potential trends are highlighted in three scenarios published by the World Energy Council in September 2019 and further presented in detail and in a long-term perspective in this article. Compared to developments of the past, the scenario results reveal that the coming decades will be different, where future total energy consumption increases more moderately, while the share of electricity of final consumption increases further. Global electricity consumption more than doubles over the next 40 years. However, this represents a remarkable slowdown in growth compared to past trends. And unlike in the past, demand growth is covered primarily by rising contributions from renewable energy, which in particular applies to the electricity sector. This article not only presents the results of this World Energy Council flagship study in a long-term perspective, but it also compares them with the future paths presented by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the fall of 2019. The biggest challenge, which results from the findings of these studies, lies in limiting the rise in global temperatures to less than 2° Celsius compared to the preindustrial level, as agreed by the international community at the end of 2015 in the Paris Climate Agreement. It outlines which strategies will enable the resulting requirements to be met in a cost-efficient manner – as a prerequisite to the desired success.



中文翻译:

到2060年的全球能源展望– WEC的《 2019年世界能源情景》

能源领域的最新信号表明,未来几十年,能源领域将发生重大变革。世界能源理事会发布的三种情景突出了潜在趋势本文将在2019年9月进行详细介绍,并从长期角度进一步详细介绍。与过去的发展相比,情景结果显示,未来几十年将有所不同,未来的总能源消耗将更加缓慢地增长,而最终消耗的电力份额将进一步增长。在未来40年中,全球用电量将增加一倍以上。但是,与过去的趋势相比,这表明增长显着放缓。而且与过去不同,需求增长主要由可再生能源的贡献增长所覆盖,这尤其适用于电力部门。本文不仅从长期角度介绍了世界能源理事会旗舰研究的结果,还将它们与美国提出的未来道路进行了比较。能源信息署(EIA)和国际能源署(IEA)将于2019年秋季发布。这些研究的结果带来的最大挑战在于,将全球温度的上升幅度限制在2摄氏度以内。根据国际社会在2015年底在《巴黎气候协定》中达成的协议,确定了工业化前的水平。它概述了哪些策略将使以经济高效的方式满足最终要求,这是获得成功的前提。

更新日期:2020-08-17
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