Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is calculated for ozone fields prepared as an input for CMIP6 models without chemistry schemes and from a chemical transport model simulation. A radiative kernel for ozone is constructed and used to derive the RF. The ozone RF in 2010 (2005–2014) relative to 1850 is 0.35 W m⁻² [0.08–0.61] (5–95% uncertainty range) based on models with both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. One of these models has a negative present-day total ozone RF. Excluding this model, the present-day ozone RF increases to 0.39 W m⁻² [0.27–0.51] (5–95% uncertainty range). The rest of the models have RF close to or stronger than the RF time series assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the fifth assessment report with the primary driver likely being the new precursor emissions used in CMIP6. The rapid adjustments beyond stratospheric temperature are estimated to be weak and thus the RF is a good measure of effective radiative forcing.

根据对耦合模型比较项目第6阶段（CMIP6）做出贡献的10种气候模型对臭氧的历史模拟，计算了从1850年到今天的总臭氧的辐射强迫（RF）时间序列。此外，还为没有化学方案的CMIP6模型输入的臭氧场计算了RF，并通过化学传输模型模拟得到了RF。构造了一个用于臭氧的辐射核，并用于导出RF。根据对流层和平流层化学模型，2010年（2005-2014年）相对于1850年的臭氧RF为0.35 W m ^-2 [0.08-0.61]（不确定度范围为5-95％）。这些模型之一具有负的当前总臭氧RF。除此模型外，目前的臭氧RF增加到0.39 W m ^-2[0.27–0.51]（不确定性范围为5–95％）。其余模型的RF接近或大于政府间气候变化专门委员会在第五次评估报告中评估的RF时间序列，其主要驱动力可能是CMIP6中使用的新的前体排放。估计超出平流层温度的快速调节作用较弱，因此RF是有效辐射强迫的良好度量。