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A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-17 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0880-3
Noah Kaufman , Alexander R. Barron , Wojciech Krawczyk , Peter Marsters , Haewon McJeon

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO2 prices. Here we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO2 emission target, prices are US$34 to US$64 per metric ton in 2025 and US$77 to US$124 in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.



中文翻译:

设定碳价的碳社会成本的近期净零替代方案

通常描述碳的社会成本(SCC),并将其用作最佳CO 2价格。但是,SCC估算的范围很广,无法为制定特定CO 2价格的决策者提供实际的帮助。在这里,我们描述了一种替代的短期到净零(NT2NZ)方法,估算了短期内与净零CO 2排放目标保持一致所需的CO 2价格。该方法与以排放目标为重点的方法相吻合,该方法以全球气候政策讨论为框架,避免了气候损害和长期脱碳成本估算中的不确定性,提供了敏感性的透明性,并允许考虑CO 2价格以及一系列政策。我们估算了美国的示例性NT2NZ CO 2价格;对于2050净零CO 2排放目标,价格US $ 34至US $ 64%公吨在2025和US $ 77至US $ 124 2030这些结果最大约补充政策和石油价格的假设的影响。

更新日期:2020-08-17
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