Not all conservation interventions are successful at correcting threatening processes and the odds of failure increase with uncertainty concerning the true threats to a population. Failure of conservation actions to improve demographic rates might be evidence of their ineffectiveness, or that other unaddressed threats nullify the potential benefits of interventions. Knowledge of key threatening processes that afflict Orange-bellied Parrots Neophema chrysogaster is lacking, but population modelling predicts that actions in the breeding range are unlikely to correct decline unless mortality during migration/wintering is addressed. Despite this, there has been a spatial bias in recovery effort towards the breeding range in recent decades. We model annual survival data spanning 1995–2017 for the last known wild population to evaluate whether the predictions about the efficacy of recovery efforts are accurate. Based on our best-supported model, probability of adult survival was constant at 0.58, but juvenile survival declined from 0.51 to 0.20. Survival did not improve when we considered the effects of recovery actions in the breeding grounds (which only aimed to correct local scale threats anyway). This result supports predictions that conservation interventions in the breeding ground alone are not sufficient to recover this species. We conclude that although interventions in the breeding ground may have corrected local threats, birds succumbed to other threats during migration/winter. It is crucial that new targeted interventions be identified and implemented to reduce mortality of Orange-bellied Parrots in their migration/winter habitats to prevent extinction.

并非所有的保护性干预措施都能成功地纠正威胁过程，失败的几率会随着对人口真正威胁的不确定性而增加。保护行动未能提高人口统计率可能是其无效的证据，或者其他未解决的威胁使干预措施的潜在收益无效。了解危害橙腹鹦鹉Neophema chrysogaster的关键威胁过程缺乏，但是种群模型预测除非解决迁徙/冬季死亡率，否则在繁殖范围内的行动不太可能纠正下降。尽管如此，近几十年来，在恢复努力上对繁殖范围存在空间偏差。我们对1995年至2017年的最后一个已知野生种群的年度生存数据进行建模，以评估有关恢复工作效力的预测是否准确。根据我们的最佳支持模型，成人生存的可能性恒定为0.58，但青少年生存率则从0.51降至0.20。当我们考虑在繁殖场中采取恢复行动的效果时生存率没有提高（无论如何，该行动仅旨在纠正局部规模的威胁）。该结果支持这样的预测：仅在繁殖场中进行保护干预不足以恢复该物种。我们得出的结论是，尽管在繁殖场进行的干预可能已纠正了局部威胁，但鸟类在迁徙/冬季期间屈服于其他威胁。至关重要的是，确定并实施新的有针对性的干预措施，以降低橙腹鹦鹉在其迁徙/冬季栖息地的死亡率，以防止灭绝。