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Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-16 , DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001473
T. Weber 1 , P. Bowyer 1 , D. Rechid 1 , S. Pfeifer 1 , F. Raffaele 2 , A. R. Remedio 1 , C. Teichmann 1 , D. Jacob 1
Affiliation  

It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co‐occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co‐occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47‐ and 12‐fold, respectively, compared to the present‐day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central‐East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation.

中文翻译:

两种不同排放情景下非洲的复合极端气候和暴露人口分析

众所周知,非洲特别容易遭受极端气候的影响,包括热浪,干旱和强降雨事件。然而,非洲如何与这些事件同时发生实际上是未知的。这项研究提供了在低(RCP2.6)和高(RCP8.5)排放情景下,非洲五个这样的极端气候共同发生的预计变化的首次分析。这些变化与人口增长率较低(SSP1)和人口增长率(SSP3)的预测相结合,以便提供对21世纪末可能遭受此类事件影响的人数的估计。我们利用嵌入在“协调的区域气候缩减试验”(CORDEX)框架中的“区域评估的协调输出”(CORE)项目中的区域气候预测集合。该集合包括五个不同的地球系统模型/区域气候模型(ESM / RCM)组合,以及三个不同的ESM和两个RCM。我们表明,所有五个复合气候极端事件的频率都会增加,在RCP8.5下的变化要大于RCP2.6。此外,在RCP8.5 / SSP3下受这些变化影响的人口比RCP2.6 / SSP1大,与今天相比分别增加了47倍和12倍。非洲特别受威胁的地区是西非,中东部非洲以及东北和东南非洲。暴露增加的主要原因是气候与人口增长之间的相互作用以及仅人口的影响。这对缓解和适应气候具有重要的政策意义。
更新日期:2020-09-07
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