The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice‐sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1, CISM2.1) and an advanced energy‐balance‐based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350‐year scenario in which atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre‐industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 K and 8.5 K by years 131‐‐150 and 331‐‐350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm SLE by year 150, and 1140 mm SLE by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr^‐1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr^‐1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre‐industrial, and is in part explained by the quasi‐parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior ``plateau”.

中文翻译：

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耦合CESM2.1-CISM2.1模拟的在高温室气体强迫下的格陵兰冰盖加速质量损失

格陵兰冰原（GrIS）现在正在以每年0.7毫米的海平面上升（SLR）的速度失去质量。在这里，我们使用社区地球系统模型2.1版（CESM2.1）探索了温室气体强迫下未来GrIS的演变以及与全球和区域气候的相互作用，该模型包括一个交互式冰原组件（社区冰原模型v2.1， CISM2.1）和基于能量平衡的高级表面融化计算。我们运行了理想的350年情景，其中大气CO ₂浓度每年增加1％，直到在140年达到工业前值的四倍，然后保持固定。到131-150年和331-350年，全球平均温度分别增加5.2 K和8.5K。到150年，预计GrIS对全球平均单反的贡献为107毫米SLE，到350年为1140毫米SLE。单反的比率从150年的2毫米yr ^-1增加到近7毫米的yr ^-1到350年时，加速的质量损失是由于随着消融面积的扩大，表面熔体的迅速增加以及相关的反照率反馈以及显热和潜热通量的增加而引起的。相对于工业化之前的全球变暖，这种加速发生在大约4.2 K的全球变暖上，部分原因是冰盖的准抛物线形，这有利于消融区域在接近内部``高原''时迅速扩大。 ”。