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Reduction in global habitat loss from fossil‐fuel‐dependent increases in cropland productivity
Conservation Biology ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-30 , DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13611
Indur M Goklany 1
Affiliation  

Terrestrial biodiversity loss is among the world's greatest environmental threats. It is driven mainly by loss of habitat to agriculture, and by climate change caused mainly from fossil fuel (FF) use. However, FF-dependent technologies are currently essential for manufacturing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (SNFs) and synthetic pesticides (SP) that are critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which reduces habitat loss. Higher carbon dioxide levels from FF use further enhance agricultural productivity. Based on estimates of global increases in yields from SNFs, SPs and atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization, I estimate that FF-dependent technologies are cumulatively responsible for at least 62.5% of current global food production (GFP) obtained from cropland. Thus, had humanity eschewed FF usage, as some advocate for the future, maintaining current GFP means, ceteris paribus, cropland would have to be increased from 12.2% of global land area excluding Antarctica (GLA) to 32.7%. The additional 20.4% of GLA that would have to be converted to cropland exceeds both the habitat lost currently to cropland (12.2% of GLA) and the cumulative area reserved for nature protection globally (14.6% of GLA). Thus, while eliminating FF use could reduce climate change its unintended consequences might be to significantly exacerbate biodiversity loss, and indirectly increase food costs, reducing food security, especially for the poor. This is because although it may be possible to eventually replace current SNFs and SPs using FF-free technologies, such substitutes have not yet been demonstrated to be sufficiently economic or efficient in practice. In the interim, the twin needs of meeting global food demand and keeping food prices manageable would increase pressure for both habitat conversion and higher food prices. These trade-offs, generally overlooked, should be considered in analyses of climate change policies. Article Impact Statement: Fossil-fuel technologies saved at least 20% of global land area from agricultural conversion; 15% is protected in nature preserves. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译:

减少因化石燃料依赖的农田生产力增加而导致的全球栖息地丧失

陆地生物多样性丧失是世界上最大的环境威胁之一。它主要是由栖息地向农业丧失以及主要由化石燃料 (FF) 使用引起的气候变化造成的。然而,目前依赖 FF 的技术对于制造合成氮肥 (SNF) 和合成农药 (SP) 至关重要,这对于提高农业生产力至关重要,从而减少栖息地丧失。FF 使用产生的更高二氧化碳水平进一步提高了农业生产力。根据对 SNF、SP 和大气二氧化碳施肥的全球产量增长的估计,我估计依赖 FF 的技术累计至少占当前全球粮食产量 (GFP) 的 62.5%。因此,如果人类避免使用 FF,作为未来的拥护者,保持当前的 GFP 意味着,在其他条件不变的情况下,耕地必须从占全球陆地面积的 12.2%(不包括南极洲 (GLA))增加到 32.7%。必须转化为农田的额外 20.4% 的 GLA 超过了目前农田丧失的栖息地(GLA 的 12.2%)和全球为自然保护保留的累积面积(GLA 的 14.6%)。因此,虽然消除 FF 的使用可以减少气候变化,但其意想不到的后果可能是显着加剧生物多样性的丧失,并间接增加粮食成本,降低粮食安全,尤其是对穷人而言。这是因为尽管使用无 FF 技术可能最终取代当前的 SNF 和 SP,但此类替代品尚未被证明在实践中具有足够的经济性或效率。在过渡期,满足全球粮食需求和保持粮食价格可控的双重需求将增加栖息地转换和粮食价格上涨的压力。在分析气候变化政策时应该考虑这些通常被忽视的权衡。文章影响声明:化石燃料技术至少节省了全球 20% 的农业转化土地面积;15% 受自然保护区保护。本文受版权保护。版权所有。15% 受自然保护区保护。本文受版权保护。版权所有。15% 受自然保护区保护。本文受版权保护。版权所有。
更新日期:2020-12-30
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