Twenty years ago the Arctic system was more resilient than now as sea ice was three times thicker than today. Heavier and more persistent sea ice provided a buffer against the influence of short-term climate fluctuations. Such recent increases in sea ice/atmospheric interactions lead to revisiting the concept of abrupt change. The Arctic climate is stabilized by a negative radiative feedback, as increased temperatures of the surface and atmospheric lose more long wave energy. However, through new shifts in albedo feedback, open ocean areas are absorbing more of the incoming solar heat. Recent multi-year environmental extremes, potential albedo instabilities, and increased sensitivity of sea ice to storms in marginal seas, are overcoming negative radiative feedback, which point to passing impending climatic and ecosystem thresholds. Unless CO₂ emissions are reduced, further Arctic extremes are expected in the next decades with environmental and societal impacts spreading through the Arctic and beyond.

二十年前，北极海冰的厚度比今天大三倍，因此北极地区的弹性比现在强。较重和更持久的海冰为抵御短期气候波动的影响提供了缓冲。海冰/大气相互作用的这种最近的增加导致重新考虑突变的概念。北极的气候通过负辐射反馈得以稳定，因为地表和大气温度升高会损失更多的长波能量。但是，通过反照率反馈的新变化，开放的海洋地区正在吸收更多的传入太阳热量。最近的多年环境极端情况，潜在的反照率不稳定性以及海冰对边缘海暴风雨的敏感性增加，正克服了辐射负反馈，这表明通过了即将来临的气候和生态系统阈值。除非CO减少了_2种排放，在未来的几十年中，随着北极和其他地区对环境和社会的影响不断蔓延，预计北极将进一步恶化。