1. Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species.
2. We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (λ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation).
3. Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affected λ at sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affected λ for the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments.
4. Synthesis. These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species.

中文翻译：

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气候操纵对北部范围内外的植物种群动态有不同的影响

1. 预测未来气候下物种的范围变化是保护生态学的中心目标。对多个物种当前范围内外的种群进行研究可以帮助确定人口对气候变化的反应是否显示方向性，指示范围变化以及一系列物种的反应是否一致。
2. 我们对在美国西北部三个纬度气候梯度分布的三个地点进行的为期三年的温度和降水实验操作，量化了在北部物种范围内以及其中两个物种超出其北部范围种植的六个本地多年生草原物种的人口统计学响应。我们使用积分投影模型估算了人口增长率（λ），并测试了不同人口动态速率（人口统计学补偿）对气候的相反反应。
3. 物种成功建立繁殖种群的地方，变暖对物种当前范围内的站点的λ产生负面影响。相反，变暖和干旱对种植在其北方范围限制之外的两个物种的λ产生积极影响。由于极低的发芽和幼苗存活，大多数物种未能在其当前范围内的一个或多个地点建立繁殖种群。我们发现几乎没有证据表明人口补偿会使人口适应气候变化。
4. 综合。这些结果支持对一系列物种的预测，随着当前范围内的种群变得越来越容易受到下降的影响，范围将需要随气候变化而变化。能够扩散到其前沿之外的物种更有可能持续存在，因为我们的证据表明，预计的气候变化可能会使这些种群受益。如果物种无法自行分散到新的栖息地，则可能需要考虑辅助迁移，以防止脆弱物种的广泛流失。