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Assessing the aggregated probability of entry of a novel prion disease agent into the United Kingdom.
Microbial Risk Analysis ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2020.100134
Verity Horigan 1 , Paul Gale 1 , Amie Adkin 1 , Timm Konold 2 , Claire Cassar 2 , John Spiropoulos 2 , Louise Kelly 1, 3
Affiliation  

In 2018 prion disease was detected in camels at an abattoir in Algeria for the first time. The emergence of prion disease in this species made it prudent to assess the probability of entry of the pathogen into the United Kingdom (UK) from this region. Potentially contaminated products were identified as evidenced by other prion diseases. The aggregated probability of entry of the pathogen was estimated as very high and high for legal milk and cheese imports respectively and very high, high and high for illegal meat, milk and cheese products respectively. This aggregated probability represents a qualitative assessment of the probability of one or more entry events per year into the UK; it gives no indication of the number of entry events per year. The uncertainty associated with these estimates was high due to the unknown variation in prevalence of infection in camels and an uncertain number and type of illegal products entering the UK. Potential public health implications of this pathogen are unknown although there is currently no evidence of zoonotic transmission of prion diseases other than bovine spongiform encephalopathy to humans.



中文翻译:

评估新型病毒病因子进入英国的总可能性。

2018年,阿尔及利亚一家屠宰场的骆驼首次发现病毒疾病。species病毒在该物种中的出现使得审慎评估病原体从该区域进入英国(UK)的可能性。其他other病毒疾病也证实了潜在的受污染产品。据估计,进口合法的牛奶和奶酪的病原体进入的总概率分别很高和很高,而非法肉类,牛奶和奶酪产品的总概率分别很高,很高和很高。该汇总概率表示每年对英国一项或多项入境事件的概率的定性评估;它没有给出每年进入事件的数量的指示。由于骆驼感染率的未知变化以及进入英国的非法产品的数量和类型不确定,与这些估计相关的不确定性很高。尽管目前没有证据表明than牛海绵状脑病以外的病毒疾病可通过人畜共患传播,但这种病原体对公共卫生的潜在影响尚不清楚。

更新日期:2020-08-15
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