Because of its negative effect on health, aflatoxin has become one of the most important mycotoxins in the world. As climate stress is one of the main triggers of aflatoxin incidence, climate change could affect its geographic distribution. The primary aim of this study was to examine the effect of climate change on the future distribution of aflatoxin in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crops in Australia. The projected distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modelled by employing the CLIMEX (CLIMatic indEX) model using two global climate models (GCMs), i.e. CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on SRES A2 and SRES A1B climate scenarios. This study has successfully developed CLIMEX model parameters for aflatoxin and confirmed the climatic zone preference of aflatoxin incidence, as concluded by other studies. Therefore, the model parameters are applicable in all parts of the world. The projection results in Australia confirm that climate change affects the future distribution of aflatoxin, including the distribution in the current peanut-growing areas. Shifts in aflatoxin invasion areas from the tropical and subtropical climate zones of the eastern part of Australia to the temperate climate zones of the south-eastern and south-western parts of the country were projected by 2100. Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to overcome the negative impacts in the future. Options for these measures include relocation of planting areas, development of host-plant resistance, proper agricultural practices, and mitigation actions by using physical, chemical, and biological approaches.

由于其对健康的负面影响，黄曲霉毒素已成为世界上最重要的霉菌毒素之一。由于气候压力是黄曲霉毒素发生的主要诱因之一，因此气候变化可能会影响其地理分布。这项研究的主要目的是研究气候变化对花生中黄曲霉毒素未来分布的影响（花生）L.）澳大利亚的农作物。通过使用CLIMEX（CLIMatic indEX）模型对2030、2050、2070和2100年的预计分布进行建模，并使用两个全球气候模型（GCM），即基于SRES A2和SRES A1B气候的CSIRO-Mk3.0和MIROC-H场景。这项研究成功开发了黄曲霉毒素的CLIMEX模型参数，并确认了黄曲霉毒素发生的气候区偏爱，正如其他研究所得出的结论。因此，模型参数适用于世界各地。澳大利亚的预测结果证实，气候变化会影响黄曲霉毒素的未来分布，包括当前花生种植地区的分布。预计到2100年，黄曲霉毒素的入侵区域将从澳大利亚东部的热带和亚热带气候区向澳大利亚东南部和西南部的温带气候区转变。因此，需要采取适应和缓解措施来克服未来的负面影响。这些措施的选择包括种植区的迁移，寄主植物抗性的发展，适当的农业实践以及使用物理，化学和生物方法的缓解措施。