For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.

对于包括波罗的海在内的许多沿海地区，已经设定了雄心勃勃的营养削减目标，以遏制富营养化，但通常不会根据预期的气候变化研究此类措施的益处。预测减少营养成分对鳗el（Zostera marina）的响应），我们将物种分布模型与生物地球化学模型相结合，获得了未来的水浊度，以及一个用于预测沿海地区未来水动力的波浪模型。使用此方法，可以针对营养情景和未来风场的不同组合对鳗草分布进行建模。我们是第一个证明，尽管在照常营业的情况下，鳗e的总面积将无法恢复，但满足赫尔辛基委员会波罗的海行动计划（BSAP）的营养减少很可能会导致鳗gra覆盖面积的大幅扩大，主要是在当前分布的较低深度限制，从而过度补偿了由暴风雨气候造成的浅海地区的损失。