Abstract

Purpose

Despite the vast amount of literature on radiological emergencies, to the best of our knowledge there is no systematic review of probable scenarios and their consequences. This work aimed for compiling such review.

Materials and methods

The authors comprised a Red Team – that is, simulated best efforts to inflict maximal damage to the society by various means of radiological attacks. Nuclear warfare including improvised nuclear devices is beyond the scope of this work.

Results

The direct radiogenic health consequences of any conceivable radiological accident, natural or man-made, are much less dangerous than those which are usually perceived. In each scenario, direct health effects are only a small part of the damage caused by fear and over-reaction; the damage is somewhat independent of the small health effect predicted for most of the scenarios. The reason is that nuclear radiation has become perceptually connected with nuclear apocalypses. This connection has caused the emotional description of radiological emergencies to frequently substitute quantitative considerations. For example, Chernobyl and Fukushima became major humanitarian disasters not because of the radiation itself but because of the over-reaction of both the authorities and the public, that led to the unjustified relocation of hundreds of thousands of people. In Fukushima, the evacuation was not justified at all and in Chernobyl the evacuated zone should have been re-populated after 1 month.

Conclusions

It is vital to educate decision makers, first responders and the public about the factual extent of possible radiological consequences, as well as about the very real danger of over-reaction. Since the extent of the countermeasures deployed is unavoidably connected, in the eye of the public, with the extent of the danger, we suggest launching educational campaigns that explain the factual extent of the radiation risk, followed by easing regulations and narrowing safety margins. Such measures will probably be the most efficient method of countering radiological terrorism: by depriving any adversary of the most important ability which is to cause an over-reaction.

中文翻译：

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评估可能发生的放射紧急情况及其后果。

摘要

目的

尽管有大量关于放射紧急情况的文献，但据我们所知，还没有对可能的情况及其后果进行系统的审查。这项工作旨在汇编此类评论。

材料和方法

作者由一个红色小组组成-即模拟通过各种放射攻击手段对社会造成最大损害的最大努力。包括简易核装置在内的核战争不在这项工作的范围之内。

结果

任何可能的自然或人为放射性事故造成的直接放射健康后果，其危险性都比通常认为的要低得多。在每种情况下，直接的健康影响只是恐惧和过度反应所造成损害的一小部分；该损害在某种程度上与大多数情况下预测的较小健康影响无关。原因是核辐射已在感知上与核启示录联系起来。这种联系已导致对放射紧急情况的情感描述经常替代定量考虑。例如，切尔诺贝利事故和福岛事故成为主要的人道灾难，不是因为辐射本身，而是因为当局和公众的过度反应，导致数十万人无故搬迁。在福岛，根本没有撤离的理由，在切尔诺贝利，撤离区应在1个月后重新安置。

结论

必须对决策者，急救人员和公众进行有关可能的放射学后果的实际程度以及过度反应的真正危险的教育。在公众看来，由于所采取的对策的程度不可避免地与危险程度有关，因此我们建议开展教育运动，以说明辐射风险的实际程度，然后放宽法规并缩小安全范围。此类措施可能是抵抗放射恐怖主义的最有效方法：通过使任何对手丧失引起过度反应的最重要能力。