Risky intertemporal choices involve choosing between options that can differ in outcomes, their probability of receipt, and the delay until receipt. To date, there has been no attempt to systematically test, compare, and evaluate theoretical models of such choices. We contribute to theory development by generating predictions from 7 models for 3 common manipulations-magnitude, certainty, and immediacy-across 6 different types of risky intertemporal choices. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of model predictions to data from an experiment involving almost 4,000 individual choices revealed that an attribute comparison-model, newly modified to incorporate risky intertemporal choices, (the risky intertemporal choice heuristic or RITCH) provided the best account of the data. Results are consistent with growing evidence in support of attribute comparison models in the risky and intertemporal choice literatures, and suggest that the relatively poorer fits of translation-based models reflect their inability to predict the differential impact of certainty and immediacy manipulations. Future theories of risky intertemporal choice may benefit from treating risk and time as independent dimensions, and focusing on attribute-comparison rather than value-comparison processes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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风险跨期选择模型的评估与比较。

有风险的跨期选择涉及在结果、接收概率和接收延迟时间可能不同的选项之间进行选择。迄今为止，还没有尝试系统地测试、比较和评估此类选择的理论模型。我们通过 7 个模型对 6 种不同类型的风险跨期选择的 3 种常见操作（幅度、确定性和即时性）进行预测，从而为理论发展做出贡献。模型预测与来自一项涉及近 4,000 个个人选择的实验数据的定性和定量比较表明，新修改的属性比较模型包含风险跨期选择（风险跨期选择启发式或 RITCH）提供了对数据的最佳解释。结果与支持风险和跨期选择文献中的属性比较模型的越来越多的证据一致，并表明基于翻译的模型相对较差的拟合反映了它们无法预测确定性和即时性操作的不同影响。风险跨期选择的未来理论可能受益于将风险和时间视为独立的维度，并关注属性比较而不是价值比较过程。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2020 APA，保留所有权利）。风险跨期选择的未来理论可能受益于将风险和时间视为独立的维度，并关注属性比较而不是价值比较过程。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2020 APA，保留所有权利）。风险跨期选择的未来理论可能受益于将风险和时间视为独立的维度，并关注属性比较而不是价值比较过程。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2020 APA，保留所有权利）。