Vocational interests have a rich history throughout the last century of psychological research, playing an influential role in fields such as personality, development, education, counseling, and organizational psychology. Yet interest measures are typically developed with the goal of matching people to careers, and there has never been a quantitative review of interests and career choice. The present meta-analysis examines the validity of interest inventories for predicting educational choices and occupational membership. This analysis of predictive hit rates incorporates almost 100 years of research investigating the accuracy of interest inventories. Using a binomial-normal meta-analytic model, the present analysis found that measured interests attain an estimated overall hit rate of 50.8% for predicting career choice. Because of the vast amount of career choice possibilities, this effect size conveys a significant degree of predictive accuracy. We also tested several potential moderators to address historical debates surrounding interest measurement. In particular, accuracy was moderated by year of publication, interest inventory, type of interest inventory scale, type of career choice outcome, and hit rate calculation method. Finally, the present study reintroduces base rates into the evaluation of predictive accuracy. We demonstrate the importance of taking base rates into account by comparing interest category hit rates and employment rates within those categories. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate that interest inventories possess considerable validity for predicting career choice, supporting their use in research, education, and work contexts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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利息清单的准确性如何？对职业选择命中率的定量评估。

在整个上个世纪的心理学研究中，职业兴趣有着丰富的历史，在个性，发展，教育，咨询和组织心理学等领域中发挥着重要作用。然而，利益衡量通常是为了使人们适应职业而制定的，并且从来没有对利益和职业选择进行定量审查。本荟萃分析检验了兴趣量表对预测教育选择和职业资格的有效性。这种对预测命中率的分析包含了将近100年的研究兴趣清单准确性的研究。使用二项式正态荟萃分析模型，本分析发现，测得的兴趣可以达到预测职业选择的估计总命中率50.8％。由于存在大量的职业选择可能性，因此这种效应大小传达了很大程度的预测准确性。我们还测试了几个潜在的主持人，以解决围绕利息衡量的历史性辩论。特别是，准确性受发布年份，兴趣清单，兴趣清单规模的类型，职业选择结果的类型和命中率计算方法的影响。最后，本研究将基准利率重新引入了预测准确性的评估中。通过比较利率类别的命中率和这些类别中的就业率，我们证明了考虑基准利率的重要性。总体而言，这项研究的结果表明，兴趣清单在预测职业选择，支持其在研究，教育和工作环境中的使用方面具有相当大的有效性。