Uncertainty is inherent to science and science communication. However, the evidence appears mixed regarding whether portraying uncertainty in science communication has positive or negative effects. We review a diverse range of experimental literature (k = 48; from 40 searches and 8000 retrievals), summarize the extant findings, and observe how the effects vary across four different types of communicated uncertainty (deficient, technical, scientific, and consensus uncertainty). The results indicate that most findings of negative effects (such as reduced credibility and beliefs) are from experiments that operationalized uncertainty as disagreement or conflict in science (consensus uncertainty). In this review, consensus uncertainty was never found to have positive effects. In contrast, uncertainty in the form of quantified error ranges and probabilities (technical uncertainty) in these studies has had only positive or null effects, not negative effects. We also highlight frequent moderators of the effects of uncertainty, such as prior beliefs and worldviews.

中文翻译：

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对公共科学传播中不确定性影响的回顾。

不确定性是科学和科学传播所固有的。然而，关于在科学传播中描绘不确定性是否具有积极或消极影响的证据似乎参差不齐。我们回顾了各种实验文献（k = 48；来自 40 次搜索和 8000 次检索），总结了现有的发现，并观察了四种不同类型的交流不确定性（缺陷、技术、科学和共识不确定性）的影响如何变化. 结果表明，大多数负面影响的发现（例如降低可信度和信念）来自将不确定性操作为科学中的分歧或冲突（共识不确定性）的实验。在本次审查中，从未发现共识不确定性具有积极影响。相比之下，在这些研究中，以量化误差范围和概率（技术不确定性）形式出现的不确定性只有正面或无效的影响，而没有负面影响。我们还强调了不确定性影响的常见调节因素，例如先前的信念和世界观。