Malaria is a major public health problem in India. The malaria transmission is sensitive to climatic parameters. The regional population-related factors also influence malaria transmission. To take into account temperature and rainfall variability and associated population-related effects (in a changing climate) on the malaria transmission over India, a regional dynamical malaria model, namely VECTRI (vector-borne disease community model) is used. The daily temperature and rainfall data derived from the historical (years 1961–2005) and representative concentration pathway (years 2006–2050) runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models have been used for the analysis. The model results of the historical run are compared with the observational data. The spatio-temporal changes (region-specific as well as seasonal changes) in the malaria transmission as a result of climate change are quantified over the India. The parameters related to the breeding cycle of malaria as well as those which estimate the malaria cases are analyzed in the global warming scenario.

疟疾是印度的主要公共卫生问题。疟疾传播对气候参数敏感。地区人口相关因素也影响疟疾传播。考虑到温度和降雨的可变性以及在气候变化中对人口的相关影响（在气候变化中），印度使用了区域动态疟疾模型，即VECTRI（媒介传播疾病群落模型）。从历史模型（1961–2005年）和代表性浓度路径（2006–2050年）的耦合模型比对项目第5阶段模型得出的每日温度和降雨量数据已用于分析。将历史运行的模型结果与观测数据进行比较。在印度，量化了由于气候变化导致的疟疾传播的时空变化（特定地区以及季节性变化）。在全球变暖的情况下，分析了与疟疾繁殖周期有关的参数以及估计疟疾病例的参数。