Flawless sub‐seasonal prediction of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution over North Indian Ocean (NIO) demands accurate rendition of the crucial parameters that influence cyclonic storm development. While many genesis potential indices are used for climatological monitoring and prediction of cyclogenesis globally, their skill in sub‐seasonal prediction of individual storm development near coastlines is limited. Thus, an improved genesis potential parameter (IGPP) is introduced that can capture cyclogenesis and evolution of cyclonic systems over NIO. The IGPP is a revised version of Kotal‐Genesis Potential Parameter (KGPP) implemented by India Meteorological Department for operational cyclogenesis prediction over NIO. Daily averaged ERA‐5 & ERA‐Interim data‐sets are used for analyses and comparison of storms over NIO for the period 1989‐2018. Results reveal that false alarms and overestimation due to KGPP are remarkably reduced in IGPP. Moreover, IGPP outperforms KGPP in distinguishing developing and non‐developing storms by accurately representing the storm evolution, rapid intensification and intensity variations.

中文翻译：

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改善北印度洋的气旋生成潜力和风暴演化参数

对北印度洋（NIO）上热带气旋的发生和发展进行无缺陷的亚季节预测，要求准确绘制影响气旋风暴发展的关键参数。尽管全球广泛使用了许多成因潜力指数进行气候监测和循环成因预报，但它们在对海岸线附近的单个风暴发展进行亚季节预测方面的能力有限。因此，引入了改进的创世潜力参数（IGPP），该参数可以捕获NIO上的气旋作用和气旋系统的演化。IGPP是印度气象局实施的Kotal-Genesis潜在参数（KGPP）的修订版，用于通过NIO进行可操作的细胞周期预测。每日平均ERA-5和ERA-中期数据集用于分析和比较1989-2018年NIO上的风暴。结果表明，在IGPP中，由KGPP引起的误报和高估明显减少。此外，通过精确表示风暴的演变，迅速的强度和强度变化，IGPP在区分发展中的和未发展的风暴方面胜过KGPP。