Abstract In the present paper a thorough probabilistic methodology is presented, aiming at estimating the reliability of coastal structures, such as rubble mound breakwaters during their lifetime, based on the probabilistic representation of load environmental and resistance parameters. One of the innovative points and main objectives of this study is the estimation of the failure probability of a coastal structure based on the long-term wave climate at the structure's location, usually met in intermediate waters, using wave observations or measurements in deeper waters. This task is accomplished by applying a wave propagation statistical model in order that the joint probability density function of all random load parameters be estimated at the structure's location. Moreover, a relation between an event-based extreme value analysis and an analysis on sea-state conditions within storm events is derived in order that both of these two approaches could be compared estimating the same kind of failure probability; an unconditional one. The latter is properly defined here as the percentage of the structure's Lifetime that the structure will be in a failure situation. This unconditional failure probability provides direct information on the time period that the structure will be in a situation of failure (since it considers the total range of loadings and total lifetime), and thus can be incorporated more efficiently in an integrated risk analysis with consideration of social and economic costs. Besides, another specific issue of scientific originality could be considered the investigation on the proper time step denoting the sea state in the sea state analysis applied. In this manner, the actual history and shape of each storm event is taken into consideration. Furthermore, it is shown that these two approaches could be incorporated in the design of a coastal structure. Moreover, two different fully probabilistic methods, Direct Integration Method and Monte Carlo Method, were applied (and compared) by using a combination of variables with zero and non-zero hazard rate, referred here as a combined time-invariant and time-variant analysis. Finally, the effect of considering additional and different types of parameters as random variables on the assessed failure probability of the structure has been investigated. The aforementioned methodology has been applied to a sample of wave and sea level data at the structure's location generated for this purpose. The original wave data were derived from measurements in deeper waters than the structure's location, covering a period of 8 years, obtained from an oceanographic buoy, located in the western Mediterranean off Malaga, Spain. Sea level data were also obtained from a tide gauge, located in Malaga's harbor. Finally, it is shown that the methodology derived from this study could be incorporated into a coastal structure's design process to meet specific safety requirements.

中文翻译：

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基于结构位置海况的概率表示评估沿海结构的失效概率

摘要 在本文中，提出了一种全面的概率方法，旨在基于负载环境和阻力参数的概率表示来估计沿海结构（例如碎石堤防波堤）在其使用寿命期间的可靠性。本研究的创新点和主要目标之一是根据结构位置的长期波浪气候估计沿海结构的失效概率，通常在中间水域遇到，使用波浪观测或在更深的水域测量。这项任务是通过应用波传播统计模型来完成的，以便在结构位置估计所有随机载荷参数的联合概率密度函数。而且，导出基于事件的极值分析与风暴事件中海况条件分析之间的关系，以便可以比较这两种方法来估计相同类型的故障概率；一个无条件的。后者在此处被正确定义为结构将处于失效状态的结构寿命的百分比。这种无条件失效概率提供了关于结构将处于失效状态的时间段的直接信息（因为它考虑了载荷的总范围和总寿命），因此可以更有效地纳入综合风险分析，并考虑到社会和经济成本。除了，另一个科学独创性的具体问题可以考虑在应用的海况分析中对表示海况的适当时间步长的调查。以这种方式，考虑了每个风暴事件的实际历史和形状。此外，还表明这两种方法可以结合到沿海结构的设计中。此外，通过使用具有零和非零危险率的变量组合，应用（和比较）两种不同的完全概率方法，即直接积分法和蒙特卡洛法，此处称为组合时不变和时变分析. 最后，研究了将额外的和不同类型的参数作为随机变量对评估的结构失效概率的影响。上述方法已应用于为此目的生成的结构位置处的波浪和海平面数据样本。原始波浪数据来自比结构位置更深的水域中的测量，涵盖了 8 年的时间，从位于西班牙马拉加附近的地中海西部的海洋浮标中获得。海平面数据也是从位于马拉加港口的潮汐计中获得的。最后，表明从这项研究得出的方法可以纳入沿海结构的设计过程，以满足特定的安全要求。涵盖 8 年的时间，从位于西班牙马拉加附近地中海西部的海洋浮标中获得。海平面数据也是从位于马拉加港口的潮汐计中获得的。最后，表明从这项研究得出的方法可以纳入沿海结构的设计过程，以满足特定的安全要求。涵盖 8 年的时间，从位于西班牙马拉加附近地中海西部的海洋浮标中获得。海平面数据也是从位于马拉加港口的潮汐计中获得的。最后，表明从这项研究得出的方法可以纳入沿海结构的设计过程，以满足特定的安全要求。