Abstract Asian carps are threatening to establish in the Great Lakes basin and the examination of factors leading to spawning success is vital for preventive efforts. Hydrodynamic modelling can determine if successful hatching of carp eggs can occur in a tributary, by predicting egg movement during a spawning event to see if hatching can occur before eggs settle. A 3-D hydrodynamic model, coupled with a Lagrangian particle tracker, was used to assess hatching rates of three Asian carp species (bighead, grass, and silver carps) in different temperature and flow scenarios in the east Don River, a potential spawning tributary to Lake Ontario. In-river hatching rates were highest in scenarios with warmer summer water temperatures (23–25 °C) and flow magnitudes of 15–35 m3/s, which occur at least once every year. Using a 3-D hydrodynamic model allowed the inclusion of low-velocity zones where eggs become trapped in lower flow scenarios, thereby reducing modelled hatching success. In-river hatching rates were significantly reduced when the spawning location was moved close to the mouth of the river, with no modelled hatching if spawning occurred in the lower 8 km of the Don River, indicating that preventing Asian carp movement upstream would viably reduce the chances of successfully spawning occurring in this tributary. The magnitude of reduction in spawning success caused by limiting Asian carp passage upstream can guide preventative strategies and the method of using a 3-D hydrodynamic model as a predictive tool could be applied in similar tributaries across the Great Lakes basin.

中文翻译：

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亚洲鲤鱼产卵成功：劳伦大湖支流 3D 流体动力学模型的预测

摘要 亚洲鲤鱼有可能在五大湖流域定殖，检查导致产卵成功的因素对于预防工作至关重要。流体动力学模型可以通过预测产卵事件期间的卵运动来确定是否可以在卵沉降之前孵化鲤鱼卵，从而确定是否可以在支流中成功孵化鲤鱼卵。3-D 流体动力学模型与拉格朗日粒子跟踪器相结合，用于评估东顿河（一个潜在的产卵支流）在不同温度和流量情况下三种亚洲鲤鱼（鳙鱼、草鱼和鲢鱼）的孵化率到安大略湖。在夏季水温较高 (23–25 °C) 和流量为 15–35 m3/s 的情况下，河内孵化率最高，这种情况每年至少发生一次。使用 3-D 流体动力学模型允许包含低速区域，在这些区域中，鸡蛋会被困在较低流量的场景中，从而降低模型孵化的成功率。当产卵地点靠近河口时，河内孵化率显着降低，如果在顿河下游 8 公里处产卵，则没有模拟孵化，这表明阻止亚洲鲤鱼向上游移动将切实减少在这条支流中成功产卵的机会。限制亚洲鲤鱼通过上游导致产卵成功率下降的幅度可以指导预防策略，使用 3-D 流体动力学模型作为预测工具的方法可以应用于五大湖盆地的类似支流。