The importance of the uncertainty quantification in ship maneuverability prediction is expounded. An efficient method for the uncertainty quantification problem, the Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC) method, is introduced. A 3-DOF MMG model is adopted to carry out simulations of 35° turning circle tests and 10°/10° zig-zag tests for a KCS container ship model. The effects of the uncertainty of the hull-related hydrodynamic derivatives in the MMG model on the maneuverability parameters, i.e., the advance, the tactical diameter, the initial turning time and the overshoot angles are analyzed quantitatively, and the sensitivities of these parameters to the hydrodynamic derivatives are determined. The results are compared with those obtained by the Monte Carlo (MC) method. It is shown that the NIPC method is much better than the MC method in terms of the convergence with respect to the number of samples, and the computation accuracy of the NIPC method is higher than that of the MC method under the same number of samples; the considered maneuverability parameters are most sensitive to the uncertainty of the yaw moment related hydrodynamic derivatives, and least sensitive to that of the longitudinal force related ones. The feasibility of the NIPC method in the uncertainty quantification of ship maneuverability prediction is proved, which provides a novel approach to analyze the influence of the accuracy of the hydrodynamic derivatives on ship maneuverability prediction.

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基于NIPC的不确定性量化在船舶操纵性预测中的应用

阐述了不确定性量化在船舶操纵性预测中的重要性。介绍了一种用于不确定性量化问题的有效方法，即非侵入式多项式混沌 (NIPC) 方法。采用3-DOF MMG模型对KCS集装箱船模型进行35°转弯圆试验和10°/10°之字形试验的模拟。定量分析了MMG模型中船体相关水动力导数的不确定性对机动性参数的影响，即前进、战术直径、初始转弯时间和超调角，以及这些参数对机动性的敏感性。确定流体动力学衍生物。将结果与通过蒙特卡罗 (MC) 方法获得的结果进行比较。结果表明，NIPC方法在样本数方面的收敛性明显优于MC方法，并且在相同样本数下NIPC方法的计算精度高于MC方法；所考虑的机动性参数对偏航力矩相关的水动力导数的不确定性最敏感，而对纵向力相关的不确定性最不敏感。证明了NIPC方法在船舶操纵性预测不确定性量化中的可行性，为分析水动力导数精度对船舶操纵性预测的影响提供了一种新方法。在相同的样本数下，NIPC方法的计算精度高于MC方法；所考虑的机动性参数对偏航力矩相关的水动力导数的不确定性最敏感，而对纵向力相关的不确定性最不敏感。证明了NIPC方法在船舶操纵性预测不确定性量化中的可行性，为分析水动力导数精度对船舶操纵性预测的影响提供了一种新方法。在相同的样本数下，NIPC方法的计算精度高于MC方法；所考虑的机动性参数对偏航力矩相关的水动力导数的不确定性最敏感，而对纵向力相关的不确定性最不敏感。证明了NIPC方法在船舶操纵性预测不确定性量化中的可行性，为分析水动力导数精度对船舶操纵性预测的影响提供了一种新方法。