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Optimal Design of a Forest-Based Biomass Supply Chain Based on the Decision maker’s Viewpoint Towards Risk
Forest Science ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-05-04 , DOI: 10.1093/forsci/fxz013
Shaghaygh Akhtari 1 , Taraneh Sowlati 1 , Verena C Griess 2
Affiliation  

Economic viability is one of the main considerations in bioenergy and biofuel projects and is impacted by uncertainty in biomass availability, cost, and quality, and bioenergy and biofuel demand and prices. One important aspect of decisionmaking under uncertainty is the viewpoint of the decision maker towards risk, which is overlooked in the biomass supply chain management literature. In this paper, we address this gap by evaluating alternative supply chain designs taking into account uncertain future conditions resulting from changes in biomass availability and cost, and bioproduct and energy prices. Three decision rules, maximax, minimax regret, and maximin, representing, respectively, optimistic, opportunistic, and pessimistic perspectives, are used for evaluation. It is assumed that the decision maker has knowledge about the potential future events, but the likelihood of their occurrence is unknown. According to the results of the case study, investment in bioenergy and biofuel conversion facilities was recommended based on optimistic and opportunistic viewpoints. Production of both bienergy and biofuels would not be profitable under pessimistic conditions. Therefore, investment in only bienergy facilities was prescribed under pessimistic conditions.

中文翻译:

基于决策者对风险的观点的森林生物质供应链的优化设计

经济生存能力是生物能源和生物燃料项目中的主要考虑因素之一,并受到生物质可用性,成本和质量以及生物能源和生物燃料需求和价格不确定性的影响。不确定性下决策的一个重要方面是决策者对风险的观点,而这一观点在生物质供应链管理文献中被忽略。在本文中,我们通过评估替代供应链设计来解决这一差距,同时考虑到由于生物质可利用性和成本以及生物产品和能源价格的变化而导致的不确定的未来状况。用于评估的三个决策规则分别为乐观,机会主义和悲观观点,即maximax,maximise后悔和maximin。假定决策者具有有关潜在未来事件的知识,但未知事件发生的可能性。根据案例研究的结果,基于乐观和机会主义的观点,建议对生物能源和生物燃料转化设施进行投资。在悲观的情况下,生物能源和生物燃料的生产都不会盈利。因此,在悲观的条件下只规定了对生物能源设施的投资。
更新日期:2019-05-04
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