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Net benefits to US soy and maize yields from intensifying hourly rainfall
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-10 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0830-0
Corey Lesk , Ethan Coffel , Radley Horton

Many varieties of short-duration extreme weather pose a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods1,2,3,4. Hourly exposure to extreme heat has been identified as detrimental to crop yields1,5; however, the influence of hourly rainfall intensity and extremes on yields remains unknown4,6,7. Here, we show that while maize and soy yields in the United States are severely damaged by the rarest hourly rainfall extremes (≥50 mm hr−1), they benefit from heavy rainfall up to 20 mm hr−1, roughly the heaviest downpour of the year on average. We also find that yields decrease in response to drizzle (0.1–1 mm hr−1), revealing a complex pattern of yield sensitivity across the range of hourly intensities. We project that crop yields will benefit by ~1–3% on average due to projected future rainfall intensification under climate warming8,9, slightly offsetting the larger expected yield declines from excess heat, with the benefits of more heavy rainfall hours outweighing the damages due to additional extremes. Our results challenge the view that an increasing frequency of high-intensity rainfall events poses an unequivocal risk to crop yields2,7,10 and provide insights that may guide adaptive crop management and improve crop models.



中文翻译:

每小时降雨量的增加给美国大豆和玉米单产带来了净收益

短期持续性极端天气的许多品种对全球农作物生产,粮食安全和农民生计1,2,3,4构成威胁。每小时暴露在极端高温下被认为对作物的产量有害1,5 ; 然而,每小时降雨强度和极端值对单产的影响仍然未知4,6,7。在这里,我们表明,尽管美国的玉米和大豆单产受到最罕见的每小时降雨量极端值(≥50mm hr -1)的严重破坏,但它们却受益于高达20 mm hr -1的强降雨,大约是美国最大的倾盆大雨。平均一年。我们还发现,毛毛雨(0.1-1 mm hr -1),揭示了在小时强度范围内复杂的屈服敏感性模式。我们预计,由于气候变暖8,9下预计未来降雨加剧,农作物平均增产约1-3%,略微抵消了因过热导致的更大的预期单产下降,而降雨时间增加带来的好处超过了损失由于其他极端情况。我们的结果对以下观点提出了挑战,即高强度降雨事件的频率增加对作物产量[ 2,7,10]无疑构成风险,并提供了可指导适应性作物管理和改善作物模型的见解。

更新日期:2020-08-10
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