Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986–2005) and future periods (2016–2035 and 2046–2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5‐SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046–2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 × 10⁹ persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6‐SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046–2065, with a 5.56‐fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 ± 0.20) × 10¹⁵ purchasing power parity $‐days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64–77% and 78–91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下极端降水的全球社会经济风险

极端降水是全球气候变化最严重的后果之一。在某些地区，观测和预测的极端降水的频率和强度将极大地影响社会经济。根据五个全球气候模型的强迫校正后三个日降水量的偏正校正预测，对基准期（1986–2005）和未来时期（2016–2035和2046–2065）的极端降水频率，人口和经济暴露进行了量化。共有的社会经济途径（SSP）中的代表性集中途径（RCP）和人口与国内生产总值（GDP）的预测。RCP8.5‐SSP3情景在2046-2065年期间产生了全球最高的人口暴露，几乎占全球人口的30％（2.97×10 ⁹人）暴露于极端降水> 10天/年。RCP2.6-SSP1情景在2046-2065年期间产生了最高的全球GDP敞口，相对于基准期增加了5.56倍，最高为（2.29±0.20）×10 ¹⁵天购买力平价天。社会经济影响是全球和大陆范围内暴露变化的主要因素。人口效应和GDP效应分别占总暴露变化的64-77％和78-91％。暴露的不平等表明，由于亚洲和非洲的人口和国内生产总值迅速增加，因此应给予更多关注。但是，由于其人口稠密和国内生产总值较高，欧洲国家，即卢森堡，比利时和荷兰，也应致力于采取有效的适应措施。