In the near future, wind and solar generation are projected to play an increasingly important role in Europe's energy sector. With such fast‐growing renewable energy development, the presence of simultaneous calm wind and overcast conditions could cause significant shortfalls in production with potentially serious consequences for system operators. Such events are sometimes dubbed “Dunkelflaute” events and have occurred several times in recent history. The capabilities of contemporary mesoscale models to reliably simulate and/or forecast a Dunkelflaute event are not known in the literature. In this paper, a Dunkelflaute event near the coast of Belgium is simulated utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Comprehensive validation using measured power production data and diverse sets of meteorological data (e.g., floating lidars, radiosondes, and weather stations) indicates the potential of WRF to reproduce and forecast the boundary layer evolution during the event. Extensive sensitivity experiments with respect to grid‐size, wind farm parameterization, and forcing datasets provide further insights on the reliability of the WRF model in capturing the Dunkelflaute event.

中文翻译：

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“ Dunkelflaute”事件的中尺度建模

预计在不久的将来，风能和太阳能发电将在欧洲能源领域发挥越来越重要的作用。随着可再生能源的快速发展，同时存在稳定的风和阴天条件可能会导致产量严重下降，并对系统运营商造成严重后果。此类事件有时被称为“ Dunkelflaute”事件，在最近的历史中已经发生过几次。文献中尚不了解现代中尺度模型可靠地模拟和/或预测Dunkelflaute事件的能力。在本文中，使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型对比利时海岸附近的Dunkelflaute事件进行了模拟。使用测得的发电量数据和各种气象数据（例如，浮动激光雷达，探空仪和气象站）表明WRF在事件期间再现和预测边界层演变的潜力。关于网格大小，风电场参数化和强制数据集的广泛敏感性实验提供了有关WRF模型在捕获Dunkelflaute事件中的可靠性的进一步见解。