1. Where agriculture expands into tropical and subtropical forests, social–ecological impacts are typically strong. However, where and how frontier development impacts on ecosystem functioning and services is often unclear, including which services trade‐off against agricultural production. This constitutes a major barrier towards planning for more sustainable outcomes in deforestation frontiers.
2. Here we assessed spatiotemporal change in multiple ecosystem services in the Argentine Chaco, a global deforestation hotspot. We modelled and mapped five ecosystem functions (i.e. carbon storage in biomass, carbon storage in soil, erosion control, excess rainfall retention by vegetation and soil fertility) which together provide three ecosystem services (i.e. agricultural suitability, climate regulation and flood regulation) for 1985, 2000 and 2013. We then employed this information to identify and map: (a) main trade‐offs between ecosystem services and agricultural production, and (b) bundles of changes in ecosystem services through the use of Self‐Organizing Maps.
3. Our results highlight that land‐use changes since 1985 have led to widespread and drastic declines in ecosystem functions and services across the Argentine Chaco. Mean losses of ecosystem services ranged between 6% and 10% for flood regulation, climate regulation and agricultural suitability. The largest losses occurred in the Dry Chaco subregion between 2000 and 2013.
4. We find two main types of trade‐offs between regulating ecosystem services and agricultural production. Increases in crop and pasture production occurred along with large and moderate losses, respectively, in flood regulation and climate regulation over 20% of the region.
5. Our mapping of bundles identified five common patterns of change in ecosystem services, delineating areas of stable or degrading ecosystem service supply. This provides a powerful template for adaptive spatial planning.
6. Synthesis and applications. Using the Argentinean Chaco as an example, we demonstrate how combining fine‐scale land‐use maps with biophysical models provides deep insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in ecosystem services, and their trade‐offs with agricultural production. The periodic updating of maps of trade‐offs and bundles of change in ecosystem services provides key inputs for the adaptive management of highly dynamic and threatened landscapes, such as those in tropical and subtropical deforestation frontiers.

中文翻译：

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阿根廷查科地区农业扩张导致多种生态系统服务广泛丧失和重大损失

1. 在农业扩展到热带和亚热带森林的地方，社会生态影响通常很强。但是，边界开发在何处以及如何影响生态系统功能和服务通常是不清楚的，包括哪些服务与农业生产之间进行权衡。这是在森林砍伐领域规划更可持续成果的主要障碍。
2. 在这里，我们评估了全球森林砍伐热点地区阿根廷查科地区多种生态系统服务的时空变化。我们对1985年的五个生态系统功能（即生物量中的碳存储量，土壤中的碳存储量，侵蚀控制，植被保留的过量降雨和土壤肥力）进行了建模和绘图，它们共同为1985年提供了三种生态系统服务（即农业适应性，气候调节和洪水调节） ，分别是2000年和2013年。我们然后利用这些信息来识别和绘制地图：（a）生态系统服务与农业生产之间的主要权衡，以及（b）通过使用自组织图来捆绑生态系统服务的变化。
3. 我们的结果表明，自1985年以来土地用途的变化已导致整个阿根廷Chaco生态系统功能和服务的广泛而急剧的下降。在洪水调节，气候调节和农业适宜性方面，生态系统服务的平均损失在6％至10％之间。最大的损失发生在2000年至2013年之间的Dry Chaco次区域。
4. 我们发现调节生态系统服务与农业生产之间存在两种主要的取舍方式。在该地区超过20％的洪水调节和气候调节中，作物和牧草产量的增加分别造成了大面积和中等程度的损失。
5. 我们对捆的映射确定了生态系统服务变化的五种常见模式，描绘了稳定或退化的生态系统服务供应区域。这为自适应空间规划提供了强大的模板。
6. 综合与应用。以阿根廷查科地区为例，我们演示了如何将精细的土地利用图与生物物理模型结合起来，才能对生态系统服务的时空格局变化及其与农业生产的权衡取舍提供深刻的见解。定期更新权衡图和生态系统服务变化捆绑图，为适应性管理高度动态和受威胁的景观（例如热带和亚热带森林砍伐地区的景观）提供了重要的投入。