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Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf
Journal of Applied Ecology ( IF 5.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-09 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724
Katherine M. Maltby 1, 2 , Louise A. Rutterford 2, 3 , Jonathan Tinker 4 , Martin J. Genner 3 , Stephen D. Simpson 2
Affiliation  

Handling Editor: Andre Punt Abstract 1. Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. 2. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4°C by 2098. 3. For each species, Generalized Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. 4. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet Mullus surmuletus L., Dover sole Solea solea L., John dory Zeus faber L. and lemon sole Microstomus kitt L. and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L., anglerfish Lophius piscatorius L. and megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L. European plaice Pleuronectes platessa L. appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, with implications for decisions on target fishing mortality rates, fishing effort and allowable catches. Increasingly flexible

中文翻译:

海洋变暖对欧洲大陆架生物地理边界上商业捕捞物种的预计影响

处理编辑:Andre Punt 摘要 1. 预测气候变化对海洋捕捞种群的未来影响可以帮助渔业和管理系统为由此产生的生态、社会和经济变化做好准备。使用多种气候情景生成预测可为渔业利益相关者提供关于未来气候数据产生的不确定性的宝贵见解。2. 使用基于政府间气候变化专门委员会 A1B、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候情景的一系列气候预测,我们模拟了凯尔特海、英吉利海峡和北海南部 8 种具有重要商业价值的底栖鱼类物种的丰度通过 21 世纪。该地区跨越较冷的北部水域和较温暖的南部水域之间的动物界,其中,到 2098 年,平均海面温度预计将上升 2 至 4°C。 3. 对于每个物种,根据 2001 年至 2010 年间六次调查的空间显性丰度数据对广义加性模型进行了训练。年度和季节性温度是主要驱动因素物种丰度模式。模型用于预测到 2090 年每十年的物种丰度。 4. 预测表明未来鱼类物种的可用性和可捕获性将发生重要变化,预计红鲻鱼 Mullus surmuletus L.、Dover slim Solea solea L. 丰度将增加, John dory Zeus faber L. 和柠檬鲆 Microstomus kitt L. 以及大西洋鳕鱼 Gadus morhua L.、琵琶鱼 Lophius piscatorius L. 和 megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L. 欧洲鲽 Pleuronectes platesa L. 的丰度减少。似乎受预计温度变化的影响较小。大多数预测的丰度响应在气候预测中具有可比性,但变化速度和幅度的不确定性通常会在 2040 年之后大幅增加。 5. 综合和应用。这些结果表明气候变化下底层渔业存在潜在风险和一些机会。这些变化将挑战当前的管理系统,对目标捕捞死亡率、捕捞努力量和允许捕获量的决策产生影响。越来越灵活 这些结果表明气候变化下底层渔业存在潜在风险和一些机会。这些变化将挑战当前的管理系统,对目标捕捞死亡率、捕捞努力量和允许捕获量的决策产生影响。越来越灵活 这些结果表明气候变化下底层渔业存在潜在风险和一些机会。这些变化将挑战当前的管理系统,对目标捕捞死亡率、捕捞努力量和允许捕获量的决策产生影响。越来越灵活
更新日期:2020-08-09
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