Predicting and analyzing wet/dry spells characteristics are vital for an appropriate understanding of climate change and its impacts on water resources management, particularly in arid and semiarid regions. Based on the downscaled precipitation series retrieved from the large-scale outputs of CanESM2 climate model under RCPs scenarios, wet/dry spells characteristics were analyzed during 2011–2040, in one of the most vulnerable arid and semiarid basins located in the Southern Alborz region, Iran. The results suggest that the mean wet spells number decreases during the 2020s period under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, while mean dry spells number indicates increasing values for the near future compared with the baseline. Moreover, short-length wet spells are dominant, while dry spells with medium durations are prevailing in the study region. On the other hand, dry spells persistence is much higher than those of wet spells, although there is no significant difference among the average wet spells number. Furthermore, there is not any significant difference among the persistence of wet spells under various RCPs scenarios. These results illustrate that the risk of flood events will be alleviated in the region ,whereas the risk of longer droughts events will increase. The main findings of this study show that analyzing the characteristics of wet/dry spells can lead to more accurate and efficient strategies to have sustainable resources management under the changing climate.

中文翻译：

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在半干旱地区使用RCP场景对湿法/干法术特征进行区域评估

预测和分析湿法/干法术特征对于正确理解气候变化及其对水资源管理的影响至关重要，特别是在干旱和半干旱地区。根据在RCP情景下从CanESM2气候模型的大规模输出中获得的降序降水序列，分析了2011-2040年间南部阿尔伯斯地区最脆弱的干旱和半干旱盆地之一的干/湿咒语特征，伊朗。结果表明，在RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5情景下，平均湿拼次数在2020年代期间有所减少，而平均干拼次数表示与基准相比，不久的将来值会增加。此外，短时湿法占主导地位，而中等持续时间的干法则在研究区域占主导地位。另一方面，尽管平均湿法术次数之间没有显着差异，但干燥法术的持久性远高于湿法术。此外，在各种RCP场景下，湿法术的持久性之间没有显着差异。这些结果表明，该地区的洪水事件风险将得到缓解，而更长的干旱事件风险将增加。这项研究的主要发现表明，分析湿法/干法术的特征可以导致更准确，更有效的策略，以便在气候变化的情况下进行可持续的资源管理。在各种RCP场景下，湿法术的持久性之间没有显着差异。这些结果表明，该地区的洪水事件风险将得到缓解，而更长的干旱事件风险将增加。这项研究的主要结果表明，分析湿/干法术的特征可以导致更准确，更有效的策略，以便在气候变化的情况下进行可持续的资源管理。在各种RCP场景下，湿法术的持久性之间没有显着差异。这些结果表明，该地区的洪水事件风险将得到缓解，而更长的干旱事件风险将增加。这项研究的主要结果表明，分析湿/干法术的特征可以导致更准确，更有效的策略，以便在气候变化的情况下进行可持续的资源管理。