For species at risk, it is important that demographic models be consistent with our most recent knowledge because alternate model versions can have differing predictions for wildlife and natural resource management. To establish and maintain this consistency, we can compare predicted model values to current or past observations and demographic knowledge. When novel predictor information becomes available, testing for consistency between modeled and observed values ensures the best models are used for robust, evidence‐based, wildlife management. We combine novel information on the extent of historical disturbance regimes (industrial and fire) to an existing demographic model and predict historical and projected demographics of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Exploring 6 simulation experiments across 5 populations in Alberta, Canada, we identify the relative importance of industrial disturbance, fire, and population density to observed population size and growth rate. We confirm the onset of significant declines across all 5 populations began approximately 30 years ago, demonstrate these declines have been consistent, and conclude they are more likely due to industrial disturbance from the oil and gas sector within contemporary population ranges than historical fire regimes. These findings reinforce recent research on the cause of woodland caribou declines. Testing for consistency between observations and models prescribed for species recovery is paramount for assessing the cause of declines, projecting population trends, and refining recovery strategies for effective wildlife management. We provide a novel simulation method for conducting these tests. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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北方驯鹿可以与自然共存，但不能与工业共存

对于濒临灭绝的物种，人口统计学模型与我们的最新知识保持一致非常重要，因为替代模型版本对野生动植物和自然资源管理的预测可能会不同。为了建立并保持这种一致性，我们可以将预测的模型值与当前或过去的观测值和人口统计学知识进行比较。当可获得新颖的预测信息时，测试建模值与观测值之间的一致性可确保将最佳模型用于可靠的，基于证据的野生动植物管理。我们将有关历史扰动范围（工业和火灾）范围的新颖信息与现有的人口模型结合起来，并预测林地北美驯鹿（Rangifer tarandus北美驯鹿）的历史和预计人口统计）。探索了加拿大艾伯塔省5个人口的6个模拟实验，我们确定了工业扰动，火灾和人口密度对观测到的人口规模和增长率的相对重要性。我们确认大约30年前开始的所有5种人口都开始出现大幅下降，表明这些下降是一致的，并且得出结论，与历史上的火灾情况相比，当代人口范围内石油和天然气行业的工业扰动更有可能是由于下降造成的。这些发现加强了对林地驯鹿下降原因的最新研究。测试观测值和规定用于物种恢复的模型之间的一致性对于评估下降的原因，预测种群趋势以及完善有效的野生动植物管理恢复策略至关重要。我们提供了一种进行这些测试的新颖的仿真方法。©2020作者。的由Wiley Periodicals LLC代表野生动物协会出版的《野生动物管理杂志》。