Abstract Natural disasters such as earthquakes always threaten human societies. Therefore, preparedness planning seems to be necessary to reduce casualties and accelerate relief efforts. Decisions in the preparedness phase include determining the optimal location for distribution centers and suppliers, allocating them to affected areas, and determining the amount of inventory of distribution centers. In this research, a robust simulation-optimization approach is presented for the planning in the preparedness phase. Although the demand for relief commodities has been considered as a given parameters. Due to our best knowledge there is no research in which the demand for relief commodities including drinking water, food, blood, medicine, tents and non-drinking water, during the disaster is related to the interactive relations of critical infrastructures of the city affected by the earthquake, and the power of the earthquake. Most of the unplanned occasions are occurred when co-incidences of probabilities are happen together. When a critical urban infrastructure fails due to earthquake it may cause some difficulties in the other infrastructures. Co-incidences may cause some horrible tragedy. First, the critical infrastructures of the city affected by the earthquake are identified and the interactions of these infrastructures are simulated. Considering the interactions of critical infrastructures in a city, various scenarios for earthquake are designed and tested through simulation approach in order to estimate the mean and variance of demand for relief commodities. The stochastic demand behavior which is the output of the simulation approach is assumed as a stochastic parameter of a mathematical model for multi-period location–allocation–Inventory problem. Robust optimization approach is used to deal with uncertainty. The mathematical model determines the location of distribution centers and suppliers, and how they are allocated to the affected areas. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a customized genetic algorithm for a case study in Tehran.

中文翻译：

---

一种用于灾前多期位置-分配-库存规划的稳健模拟-优化方法

摘要 地震等自然灾害总是威胁着人类社会。因此，准备计划似乎对于减少伤亡和加快救援工作是必要的。准备阶段的决策包括确定配送中心和供应商的最佳位置，将它们分配到受影响的区域，以及确定配送中心的库存量。在这项研究中，提出了一种稳健的模拟优化方法，用于准备阶段的规划。尽管对救济商品的需求已被视为一个给定的参数。据我们所知，没有研究表明对包括饮用水、食物、血液、药品、帐篷和非饮用水在内的救济商品的需求，灾情关系到受地震影响的城市关键基础设施与地震威力的互动关系。大多数意外事件发生在概率的同时发生时。当一个关键的城市基础设施因地震而发生故障时，可能会给其他基础设施带来一些困难。共同的事件可能会导致一些可怕的悲剧。首先，确定受地震影响的城市的关键基础设施，并模拟这些基础设施的相互作用。考虑到城市关键基础设施的相互作用，通过模拟方法设计和测试各种地震情景，以估计对救济商品需求的均值和方差。作为模拟方法输出的随机需求行为被假定为多周期位置-分配-库存问题数学模型的随机参数。鲁棒优化方法用于处理不确定性。数学模型决定了配送中心和供应商的位置，以及它们如何分配到受影响的地区。提出的数学模型是使用定制的遗传算法解决的，用于德黑兰的案例研究。