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Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections.
Mathematical Biosciences ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108442
Berlinda Batista 1 , Drew Dickenson 1 , Katharine Gurski 1 , Malick Kebe 1 , Naomi Rankin 1
Affiliation  

On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures.



中文翻译:

最小化在隔离的游轮上传播的疾病:具有无症状感染的COVID-19模型。

2月5日,日本政府命令钻石公主号上的乘客和机组人员在前乘客对COVID-19测试呈阳性后开始为期两周的隔离。在隔离期间,病毒在整个船上迅速传播。截至2月20日,共有651例。我们使用SEIR模型对该隔离区进行建模,其中包括无症状感染以及船员和乘客在船上的不同角色。该研究包括基本繁殖数的推导和模拟研究,这些研究显示了与COVID-19或流感隔离的检疫对总感染数的影响。我们显示,如果未发现无症状感染,则带有COVID-19的船舶上的检疫将导致重大疾病传播。但是,如果大多数机组人员和乘客对COVID-19免疫或接种了疫苗,那么隔离将减慢传播速度。我们还表明,即使是在船员和乘客完全敏感的情况下,也可以通过检疫措施遏制类似于流感的疾病。

更新日期:2020-08-14
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