Viscacha rats (genus Tympanoctomys Yepes, 1942) are ecologically, physiologically, and behaviorally unusual octodontid rodents endemic to the Monte and Patagonian desert biomes of Argentina. The geographic ranges of the different species of Tympanoctomys have been described in general terms but have not been associated with spatial and climate data. Within species, populations are patchily distributed and genetically distinct. We investigated the predicted distribution of Tympanoctomys and the influence of climate fluctuations on their geographic range in historical, current, and future, scenarios. Our objectives were to characterize the environmental niche of the genus, propose a paleoclimatic context for the oldest fossils, characterize the environmental niches for T. barrerae and T. kirchnerorum, and forecast potential future distributions for these taxa. Ecological niche models were constructed using occurrence records from 1941 to the present wherein we identified several precipitation and temperature variables as important predictors of the geographic distributions of the genus, and the species T. barrerae and T. kirchnerorum. Based on our models' results, we hypothesize that the distribution of Tympanoctomys has contracted from historical to modern times. At the species level, T. kirchnerorum likely experienced the most dramatic change, suffering a large contraction of its historical distribution resulting in its limited present distribution. Given these findings, projected future climate fluctuations and global warming are expected to affect the distributions and persistence of these species.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对鼓室切开属（啮齿类、Hystricomorpha、Octodontidae）预测分布的影响及其保护意义

Viscacha 大鼠（Tympanoctomys Yepes，1942 年）是阿根廷蒙特和巴塔哥尼亚沙漠生物群落特有的生态、生理和行为异常的八齿类啮齿动物。鼓室切开术不同物种的地理范围已用一般术语进行了描述，但并未与空间和气候数据相关联。在物种内，种群分布不均且遗传上不同。我们调查了鼓室切开术的预测分布以及气候波动对其地理范围的历史、当前和未来情景的影响。我们的目标是表征该属的环境生态位，提出最古老化石的古气候背景，表征 T. barrerae 和 T. kirchnerorum 的环境生态位，并预测这些分类群的潜在未来分布。生态位模型是使用 1941 年至今的发生记录构建的，其中我们确定了几个降水和温度变量作为该属以及 T. barrerae 和 T. kirchnerorum 物种地理分布的重要预测因子。根据我们模型的结果，我们假设鼓室切开术的分布从历史到现代已经收缩。在物种层面，T. kirchnerorum 可能经历了最剧烈的变化，其历史分布经历了大幅收缩，导致其目前的分布有限。鉴于这些发现，预计未来的气候波动和全球变暖将影响这些物种的分布和持久性。生态位模型是使用 1941 年至今的发生记录构建的，其中我们确定了几个降水和温度变量作为该属以及 T. barrerae 和 T. kirchnerorum 物种地理分布的重要预测因子。根据我们模型的结果，我们假设鼓室切开术的分布从历史到现代已经收缩。在物种层面，T. kirchnerorum 可能经历了最剧烈的变化，其历史分布经历了大幅收缩，导致其目前的分布有限。鉴于这些发现，预计未来的气候波动和全球变暖将影响这些物种的分布和持久性。生态位模型是使用 1941 年至今的发生记录构建的，其中我们确定了几个降水和温度变量作为该属以及 T. barrerae 和 T. kirchnerorum 物种地理分布的重要预测因子。根据我们模型的结果，我们假设鼓室切开术的分布从历史到现代已经收缩。在物种层面，T. kirchnerorum 可能经历了最剧烈的变化，其历史分布经历了大幅收缩，导致其目前的分布有限。鉴于这些发现，预计未来的气候波动和全球变暖将影响这些物种的分布和持久性。