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Dynamic Model for the Epidemiology of Diarrhea and Simulation Considering Multiple Disease Carriers.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ( IF 4.614 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-06 , DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165692
Firda Rahmadani 1 , Hyunsoo Lee 1
Affiliation  

Diarrhea is responsible for killing around 525,000 children every year, even though it is preventable and treatable. This research focuses on both houseflies’ roles and humans’ roles in carrying pathogens causing diarrhea as multiple disease carriers. Both human and fly compartmental models are simulated with five diseases control strategies in order to identify the epidemic dynamics. The framework considers the life cycle of flies modeled into eggs, larvae, pupae, susceptible flies, and carrier flies, while the human system follows a compartment model as susceptible, infected, recovered, and back to susceptible again (SIRS). The relationships are modeled into an ordinary differential equation-based compartmental system. Then, the control parameters of the compartmental framework are analyzed. In order to propose effective control methods, five control strategies are considered: (1) elimination of flies’ breeding site, (2) sanitation, (3) installation of UV light trap, (4) good personal and food hygiene, and (5) water purification. Then, overall, ten control scenarios using the five control strategies are analyzed. Among them, effective control solutions considering various dynamic epidemiology are provided with the simulations and analyses. The proposed framework contributes to an effective control strategy in reducing the number of both flies and infected humans, since it minimizes the spread of the disease and considers cost-effectiveness.

中文翻译:

考虑多种疾病携带者的腹泻流行病学动态模型和仿真。

腹泻每年可导致约525,000名儿童死亡,尽管这种情况是可以预防和治疗的。这项研究侧重于家蝇和人类在携带引起腹泻的病原体作为多种​​疾病携带者方面的作用。人类和苍蝇隔间模型都通过五种疾病控制策略进行仿真,以识别流行病动态。该框架考虑了以卵,幼虫,up,易感性蝇和携带者性蝇为模型的蝇的生命周期,而人类系统则按照易感性,感染性,恢复性和再次回到易感性(SIRS)的方式进行隔间模型研究。这些关系被建模为基于普通微分方程的隔室系统。然后,分析隔室框架的控制参数。为了提出有效的控制方法,考虑了五种控制策略:(1)消除苍蝇的繁殖场所;(2)卫生;(3)安装紫外线灯;(4)保持良好的个人和食品卫生;(5)净化水。然后,总体上分析了使用五种控制策略的十种控制方案。其中,通过仿真和分析,提供了考虑各种动态流行病学的有效控制解决方案。拟议的框架有助于减少苍蝇和受感染人类人数的有效控制策略,因为它可最大程度地减少疾病的传播并考虑成本效益。分析了使用五种控制策略的十种控制方案。其中,通过仿真和分析,提供了考虑各种动态流行病学的有效控制解决方案。拟议的框架有助于减少苍蝇和受感染人类人数的有效控制策略,因为它可最大程度地减少疾病的传播并考虑成本效益。分析了使用五种控制策略的十种控制方案。其中,通过仿真和分析,提供了考虑各种动态流行病学的有效控制解决方案。拟议的框架有助于减少苍蝇和受感染人类人数的有效控制策略,因为它可最大程度地减少疾病的传播并考虑成本效益。
更新日期:2020-08-06
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