Population viability analyses can assess species persistence under current or simulated future conditions and guide conservation and management efforts for species of concern. We evaluated population viability of an endangered songbird, the golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia), over a 50‐year period using empirically derived population parameters collected from 2009 to 2015 on the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve (BCP), Travis County, Texas, USA. Assuming the extent and quality of habitat within the BCP does not change, the population remained stable with a population size of approximately 1,800 males, adult survival of 0.57, seasonal productivity of 1.32 male fledglings/territory, and assumed juvenile survival of 0.40. Population viability, however, was sensitive to changes in vital rates. The population declined toward local extinction when vital rates were at the low end of rates considered (0.47 adult survival, 1.14 male fledglings/territory, 0.28 juvenile survival), but had little to no probability of local extinction when vital rates were at the upper end (0.67 adult survival, 1.50 male fledglings/territory, 0.44 juvenile survival). Obtaining accurate estimates of juvenile survival remains problematic, but if juvenile survival is as low as previously reported elsewhere (0.28), the stability observed during the years of our study could be due to immigration of individuals displaced by habitat loss in the surrounding landscape. Increased carrying capacity, which served as a proxy for increased habitat quality within the BCP, was insufficient to sustain the population when productivity was low, illustrating the need for adequate seasonal productivity. Consistent with previous studies, our findings underscore the importance of managing for high‐quality breeding habitat and maintaining connectivity with other large habitat patches to promote the long‐term viability of the species. We suggest monitoring survival and productivity of high‐concern species may be justified because assessment of status from abundance alone can be confounded by immigration and other factors. © 2020 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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城市化景观中金颊莺的种群生存力

种群生存力分析可以评估当前或模拟未来条件下物种的持久性，并指导有关物种的保护和管理工作。我们评估了濒临灭绝的鸣鸟（金颊莺（Setophaga chrysoparia）的种群生存能力），在50年的时间里，使用了根据经验得出的从2009年到2015年在美国德克萨斯州特拉维斯县的Balcones Canyonlands保护区（BCP）上收集的人口参数。假设BCP内栖息地的范围和质量没有变化，该人口保持稳定，男性约有1800人，成活率为0.57，季节性生产力为1.32羽雏/领地，假定少年生存率为0.40。然而，人口的生存能力对生命率的变化很敏感。当生命率处于所考虑的最低水平时（0.44成年存活率，1.14男性幼雏/地区，0.28少年存活率），人口趋于局部灭绝，但是当生命率处于较高水平时，人口几乎没有灭绝的可能性。 （0.67成年成年生存率，1.50羽成年幼鸟/领土，0。44岁的青少年生存率）。对少年生存率进行准确估计仍然是有问题的，但是如果少年生存率与先前在其他地方报道的一样低（0.28），则在我们的研究年中观察到的稳定性可能是由于周围环境中因栖息地丧失而流离失所的个人的移民。承载能力的提高是BCP内栖息地质量提高的代表，当生产力较低时不足以维持人口，这说明需要适当的季节性生产力。与先前的研究一致，我们的发现强调了管理高质量繁殖生境并保持与其他大型生境斑块的连通性以促进该物种长期生存的重要性。我们建议对高关注物种的生存和生产力进行监测可能是合理的，因为仅从丰度评估状态可能会与移民和其他因素混淆。©2020作者。Wiley Periodicals，Inc.代表“野生动物协会”出版的“野生动物协会公告”。