Abstract Solar radiation incident on photovoltaic modules only partly directly convert into electricity; the rest is converted into heat that increases the module layers’ temperature. In order to quantify both the output power and the electrical efficiency, the knowledge of the temperature profile is essential. This study proposes a transient one-dimensional thermal model of photovoltaic modules which provides the temperature distribution across the panel thickness, used to predict the electricity production under variable operating weather conditions. The model was implemented and validated considering the module back surface temperature and the produced electric power measured in an experimental set-up located at the University of Calabria (Italy). A more detailed evaluation of the long-wave radiative heat exchange between the front glass cover and the external environment is considered, employing experimental sky temperatures data. Different formulations of the heat transfer coefficient were tested to provide more accurate results. To show the reliability of the model predictions over a wide range of operating conditions, the validation was conducted considering several days of each season with different meteorological situations. The accuracy of the model was proved by statistical parameters showing the excellent agreement between the predicted and measured temperatures and power outputs.

中文翻译：

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光伏发电预测的准确热模型：在不同气候条件下的长期验证

摘要 入射到光伏组件上的太阳辐射只有部分直接转化为电能；其余部分转化为热量，从而提高模块层的温度。为了量化输出功率和电效率，温度曲线的知识是必不可少的。本研究提出了光伏模块的瞬态一维热模型，该模型提供了整个面板厚度的温度分布，用于预测可变操作天气条件下的发电量。考虑到模块背面温度和在位于卡拉布里亚大学（意大利）的实验装置中测量的产生的电力，该模型被实施和验证。考虑使用实验天空温度数据对前玻璃盖与外部环境之间的长波辐射热交换进行更详细的评估。测试了不同的传热系数公式以提供更准确的结果。为了显示模型预测在各种操作条件下的可靠性，进行了验证，考虑到每个季节的几天和不同的气象情况。统计参数证明了模型的准确性，该参数显示预测和测量的温度和功率输出之间具有极好的一致性。为了显示模型预测在各种操作条件下的可靠性，进行了验证，考虑到每个季节的几天和不同的气象情况。统计参数证明了模型的准确性，该参数显示预测和测量的温度和功率输出之间具有极好的一致性。为了显示模型预测在各种操作条件下的可靠性，进行了验证，考虑到每个季节的几天和不同的气象情况。统计参数证明了模型的准确性，该参数显示预测和测量的温度和功率输出之间具有极好的一致性。