Abstract Climate change will cause a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in Quebec (Canada), and especially in the Abitibi region, an important mining region. Projections indicate an average increase of the intensity of the summer Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) between 18 and 30% by 2100. Greater PMP could affect the performance and integrity of mining infrastructure (berms, dams, spillways), and increase the risk of dike overtopping (a common mechanism for dike failure in the mining industry). In this paper, an approach using projected PMPs from regional climate models to design surface water management infrastructure is proposed and applied on a real mine site in Abitibi. Clavet-Gaumont and Hershfield PMP calculation methods are presented and compared. Rainfall and runoff were measured at Canadian Malartic Mine to characterize the rainfall-runoff characteristics of waste rock piles and tailings storage facilities. Field measurements were used to calibrate a numerical model and quantify the projected impact of climate change on runoff following extreme rainfall events. The effect of temporal rainfall distribution, waste rock/tailings initial conditions and catchment geometry on runoff were also studied. Results show that the peak discharge of summer/fall PMP could increase significantly, up to 49% considering Representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The choice of the approach used to estimate PMP could cause major differences in the design of surface water infrastructure. The RCP scenario was also identified as a major cause for uncertainty in the projection of peak discharges.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化对矿山废物储存设施极端降雨事件和地表水管理的影响

摘要 气候变化将导致魁北克（加拿大）极端降水事件的强度和频率显着增加，特别是在重要的矿区阿比蒂比地区。预测表明，到 2100 年夏季可能最大降水 (PMP) 的强度平均增加 18% 到 30%。更大的 PMP 可能会影响采矿基础设施（护堤、水坝、溢洪道）的性能和完整性，并增加堤坝的风险溢流（采矿业堤防故障的常见机制）。在本文中，提出了一种使用区域气候模型预测的 PMP 来设计地表水管理基础设施的方法，并将其应用于阿比蒂比的一个真实矿场。介绍并比较了 Clavet-Gaumont 和 Hershfield PMP 计算方法。在加拿大 Malartic 矿测量了降雨和径流，以表征废石堆和尾矿储存设施的降雨径流特性。现场测量用于校准数值模型并量化气候变化对极端降雨事件后径流的预计影响。还研究了时间降雨分布、废石/尾矿初始条件和集水区几何形状对径流的影响。结果表明，考虑到代表性浓度路径 8.5 (RCP8.5) 情景，夏季/秋季 PMP 的峰值排放量可能会显着增加，最高可达 49%。用于估计 PMP 的方法的选择可能会导致地表水基础设施设计的重大差异。RCP 情景也被确定为峰值排放量预测不确定的主要原因。