Abstract The terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle is a major contributing factor in the rise in global average temperature. Based on the net ecosystem production (NEP) calculation model and classifications, the spatial distribution patterns of carbon sources and sinks for vegetation in Central Asia are analyzed. The results show obvious zonal characteristics in the distribution of carbon sources and sinks. Carbon source areas form the majority and are mainly located in south-central Kazakhstan and parts of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, while most carbon sink areas are located in northern Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan and Tajikistan. NEP shows a downward trend during 2000–2015, indicating decreasing capacities of low and high carbon sinks in forest land, sparse vegetation, and bare areas. Even a weakening in the carbon sink capacity resulted in no significant decrease, indicating instead a decline in grassland quality. The change in NEP matches the change in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). Water is the limiting factor for ecological attributes in arid and semi-arid areas, with drought influencing both the carbon budget and balance. These conclusions are critical for maintaining ecological stability and sustainable economic development in the Silk Road Economic Belt.

中文翻译：

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中亚缺水条件下植被碳汇和碳源的空间格局

摘要 陆地生态系统碳循环是全球平均气温上升的主要因素。基于净生态系统生产（NEP）计算模型和分类，分析了中亚地区植被碳源和碳汇的空间分布格局。结果表明，碳源汇分布具有明显的地带性特征。碳源区占多数，主要分布在哈萨克斯坦中南部和乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦部分地区，碳汇区主要分布在哈萨克斯坦北部、吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦。2000-2015 年 NEP 呈下降趋势，表明林地、植被稀疏和裸露地区低碳和高碳汇能力下降。即使碳汇能力减弱，也没有显着下降，反而表明草地质量下降。NEP 的变化与陆地净初级生产力（NPP）的变化相匹配。水是干旱和半干旱地区生态属性的限制因素，干旱影响碳收支和平衡。这些结论对于维护丝绸之路经济带生态稳定和经济可持续发展至关重要。