Correctly quantifying elevated air temperature effects on crop yield through field experiments and crop modeling is essential for developing adaptation strategies under climate change. In this study, the effects of elevated air temperature on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] production were investigated using a four‐year open top chamber experiment (2015–2018) in North Carolina, USA. The experimental results showed that an increase of average air temperature during growing seasons by 3.4 °C to 25.7 °C decreased seed yield by 22%, final biomass by 11%, and harvest index by 12%, but did not significantly affect maturity date. The reduction in seed yield was more associated with reduction in seed number (19%) than in seed weight (2%). Two soybean growth models (CROPGRO and HERMES) in the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) were evaluated against measured temperature responses from the four‐year experiment. Both crop models simulated lower reduction in seed yield (15% for CROPGRO and 17% for HERMES), but simulated reduction in biomass was lower by CROPGRO (7%) and higher by HERMES (20%) than that measured in the chambers. Between the two models, HERMES predicted slightly better responses of seed yield and biomass to temperature across the four years than CROPGRO, whereas the opposite was true for maturity date and harvest index. However, HERMES simulated earlier maturity dates for heated treatment than observed, suggesting that improvements are needed in the model for soybean phenology response to temperature increase.

中文翻译：

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田间和模式评估的灌溉大豆对气温升高的反应

通过田间试验和作物模型正确量化升高的气温对作物产量的影响，对于制定气候变化下的适应策略至关重要。在这项研究中，气温升高对大豆的影响[ Glycine max[L.）Merr。]的生产在美国北卡罗来纳州进行了为期四年的开顶室实验（2015-2018年）。实验结果表明，生长季节平均气温升高3.4°C至25.7°C，种子产量降低22％，最终生物量降低11％，收获指数降低12％，但对成熟日期没有明显影响。种子产量的减少与种子数量的减少（19％）比种子重量（2％）更相关。针对四年期实验测得的温度响应，对根区水质模型（RZWQM）中的两个大豆生长模型（CROPGRO和HERMES）进行了评估。两种作物模型都模拟了较低的种子产量降低（CROPGRO为15％，HERMES为17％），但是模拟的生物量减少比CROPGRO（7％）低，而HERMES（20％）高，比在室中测得的减少。在这两个模型之间，HERMES预测四年内种子产量和生物量对温度的响应要略好于CROPGRO，而成熟日期和收获指数则相反。但是，HERMES模拟的加热处理的成熟日期比观察到的要早，这表明需要对模型进行改进以应对温度升高引起的大豆物候响应。