Climate change adaptations by farmers are usually analysed with multinomial choice models, which ignore heterogeneity and ‘mixing’ across alternatives and individuals. Moreover, not enough attention is devoted to basic utilities other than extension services. Aimed at a reassessment that accounts for these issues, this paper formulates conditional and mixed logit (logit kernel) models with/without neighbourhood effects. In particular, a spatial logit kernel allows capturing behavioural differences and interdependence between neighbours. The analysis was based on a survey covering 162 villages of the Ethiopian Nile basin, with 50 farm households—multistage stratified randomly sampled—in each of 20 districts (woredas). Supplementary information concerned linear programming solutions on adaptation choice attributes in smallholder farming areas, under two scenarios. Lastly, cross-district aid emergency allocation priorities for food security and agriculture, among others, served as yardsticks for comparison with prevailing adjustment decisions and location characteristics. Closeness to farms with more educated farmers and larger plot sizes turned out to increase the likelihood of a household opting to sell livestock and land along with combined measures of farmland enhancement. Logit kernel outperformed conditional logit in explanatory power, and random parameters highlighted individual and group heterogeneity in preferences. Access to electricity, healthcare, and reliable and safe water supply strengthen farmers’ ability to respond to climate change. Specific adaptation measures can contribute in turn to improve the capacity of rural communities to mitigate the severity of health and nutrition crises. By contrast, in woredas hit by recurrent epidemics and droughts, many farmers appear to be unable to resort even to basic adaptation measures, such as planting of new trees. This prompts an additional need for institutional support and infrastructure development.

中文翻译：

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偏好异质性、邻里效应和基本服务：埃塞俄比亚农民气候适应的 logit 核模型

农民对气候变化的适应通常使用多项选择模型进行分析，该模型忽略了替代方案和个人之间的异质性和“混合”。此外，对推广服务以外的基本公用事业的关注不够。为了重新评估这些问题，本文制定了有/没有邻域效应的条件和混合 logit（logit 核）模型。特别是，空间 log​​it 内核允许捕获邻居之间的行为差​​异和相互依赖。该分析基于覆盖埃塞俄比亚尼罗河流域 162 个村庄的调查，在 20 个地区 (woredas) 中的每个地区有 50 个农户——多阶段分层随机抽样。关于小农耕作区适应选择属性的线性规划解决方案的补充信息，在两种情况下。最后，粮食安全和农业等跨地区援助紧急分配优先事项作为与现行调整决定和地点特征进行比较的标准。事实证明，与拥有更多受过教育的农民和更大面积的农场的距离增加了家庭选择出售牲畜和土地以及结合农田改良措施的可能性。Logit 核在解释力上优于条件 logit，随机参数突出了个人和群体偏好的异质性。获得电力、医疗保健和可靠安全的供水可以增强农民应对气候变化的能力。反过来，具体的适应措施有助于提高农村社区减轻健康和营养危机严重程度的能力。相比之下，在反复发生流行病和干旱的地区，许多农民似乎甚至无法采取基本的适应措施，例如种植新树。这提示了对制度支持和基础设施发展的额外需求。