Predicting large solar flares The sudden release of magnetic energy on the Sun drives powerful solar flares, which are difficult to predict. Kusano et al. derived physics-based thresholds for the onset of large solar flares and show how they can be predicted from routine solar observations (see the Perspective by Veronig). They tested their method using observations of the Sun from 2008 to 2019. In most cases, the method correctly identifies which regions will produce large flares within the next 20 hours, although there are some false positives and false negatives. The method also provides the exact location where each flare will begin and limits on how powerful it will be. Accurate predictions of solar flares could improve forecasts of space weather conditions around Earth. Science, this issue p. 587; see also p. 504 A physics-based method correctly predicts most large solar flares through routine observations of the Sun. Solar flares are highly energetic events in the Sun’s corona that affect Earth’s space weather. The mechanism that drives the onset of solar flares is unknown, hampering efforts to forecast them, which mostly rely on empirical methods. We present the κ-scheme, a physics-based model to predict large solar flares through a critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic instability, triggered by magnetic reconnection. Analysis of the largest (X-class) flares from 2008 to 2019 (during solar cycle 24) shows that the κ-scheme predicts most imminent large solar flares, with a small number of exceptions for confined flares. We conclude that magnetic twist flux density, close to a magnetic polarity inversion line on the solar surface, determines when and where solar flares may occur and how large they can be.

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一种基于物理学的方法，可以预测即将发生的大型太阳耀斑

预测大型太阳耀斑 太阳上突然释放的磁能会导致强烈的太阳耀斑，而这很难预测。草野等人。推导出大太阳耀斑开始的基于物理学的阈值，并展示如何从常规太阳观测中预测它们（见 Veronig 的观点）。他们使用 2008 年至 2019 年的太阳观测测试了他们的方法。在大多数情况下，该方法正确识别了哪些区域将在接下来的 20 小时内产生大耀斑，尽管存在一些误报和漏报。该方法还提供了每个耀斑开始的确切位置，并限制了它的威力。对太阳耀斑的准确预测可以改进对地球周围空间天气状况的预测。科学，这个问题 p。587; 另见第 504 一种基于物理学的方法通过对太阳的常规观测正确预测了大多数大型太阳耀斑。太阳耀斑是太阳日冕中的高能事件，会影响地球的太空天气。驱动太阳耀斑爆发的机制尚不清楚，这阻碍了预测它们的努力，而预测它们主要依赖于经验方法。我们提出了 κ 方案，这是一种基于物理的模型，通过磁重联触发的磁流体动力学不稳定的临界条件来预测大型太阳耀斑。对 2008 年至 2019 年（在太阳活动周期 24 期间）最大（X 级）耀斑的分析表明，κ 方案预测最迫在眉睫的大型太阳耀斑，只有少数受限耀斑例外。我们得出结论，接近太阳表面磁极反转线的磁扭曲通量密度，