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On the contribution of internal climate variability to European future climate trends
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ( IF 2.247 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1788901
T. Koenigk 1, 2 , L. Bärring 1 , D. Matei 3 , G. Nikulin 1 , G. Strandberg 1, 2 , E. Tyrlis 3 , S. Wang 1 , R. Wilcke 1
Affiliation  

Abstract Large historical and future ensemble simulations from the Max-Planck Institute and the Canadian Earth System Models and from CMIP5 have been analysed to investigate the uncertainty due to internal variability in multi-decadal temperature and precipitation trends over Europe. Internal variability dominates the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation trends in all seasons at 30-year time scales. Locally, seasonal 30-year temperature trends deviate up to ±3 °C from the ensemble mean trend. Thus, in the entire of Europe, local seasonal temperature changes until year 2050 from below −1 °C up to more than 4 °C are possible according to the model results. Up to 30% of all ensemble members show negative temperature trends until year 2050 in winter, up to 10% of the members in summer. Uncertainties of 30-year precipitation trends due to internal variability exceed the trends almost everywhere in Europe. Only in few European regions more than 75% of the members agree on the sign of the change until year 2050. In southern Sweden, minimum and maximum winter (summer) temperature trends in the next 30 years differ with up to 7 °C (5 °C) between individual members of the large model ensembles. Large positive temperature trends are linked to positive (negative) precipitation trends in winter (summer) in southern Sweden. This variability is attributed to the variability in large scale atmospheric circulation trends, mainly due to internal atmospheric variability. We find only weak linkages between the variability of temperature trends and the dominant decadal to multi-decadal climate modes. This indicates that there is limited potential to predict the multi-decadal variability in climate trends. The main findings from our study are robust across the large ensembles from the different models used in this study but at the local scale, the results depend also on the choice of the model.

中文翻译:

关于内部气候变率对欧洲未来气候趋势的贡献

摘要 分析了来自马克斯普朗克研究所和加拿大地球系统模型以及来自 CMIP5 的大型历史和未来集合模拟,以研究由于欧洲几十年温度和降水趋势的内部变化引起的不确定性。内部变率主导了 30 年时间尺度上所有季节的温度和降水趋势的不确定性。在本地,30 年的季节性温度趋势与集合平均趋势的偏差高达 ±3 °C。因此,根据模型结果,在整个欧洲,直到 2050 年,局部季节性温度变化从低于 -1 °C 到超过 4 °C 是可能的。高达 30% 的全体成员在 2050 年之前的冬季显示出负温度趋势,夏季高达 10% 的成员。由于内部变率,30 年降水趋势的不确定性几乎超过了欧洲几乎所有地方的趋势。只有在少数欧洲地区,超过 75% 的成员同意到 2050 年的变化迹象。在瑞典南部,未来 30 年的最低和最高冬季(夏季)温度趋势差异高达 7 °C (5 °C) 在大型模型集合的各个成员之间。瑞典南部冬季(夏季)的大的正温度趋势与正(负)降水趋势有关。这种变化归因于大尺度大气环流趋势的变化,主要是由于内部大气变化。我们发现温度趋势的变化与主要的年代际到多年代际气候模式之间只有微弱的联系。这表明预测气候趋势的多年代际变率的潜力有限。我们研究的主要发现在本研究中使用的不同模型的大型集合中是稳健的,但在局部范围内,结果还取决于模型的选择。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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