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Communication and Hazard Perception Lessons from Category Five Hurricane Michael
Atmosphere ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-30 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos11080804
Jason Senkbeil , Laura Myers , Susan Jasko , Jacob Reed , Rebecca Mueller

Hurricane Michael made landfall on 10 October 2018 as only the third Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) category 5 storm in the USA in the named era. The storm’s intensity, rapid intensification, October landfall, high inland winds, and uncommon landfall location all combined to complicate the communication and preparation efforts of emergency managers (EMs) and broadcast meteorologists (BMs), while clouding the comprehension of the public. Interviews were conducted with EMs, BMs, and a small public sample to hear their stories and identify and understand common themes and experiences. This information and previous research was used to inform the creation of questions for a large sample public survey. Results showed that 61% of our sample did not evacuate, and approximately 80% either underestimated the intensity, misinterpreted or did not believe the forecast, or realized the danger too late to evacuate. Hazard perception from a survey of the public revealed that wind followed by tornadoes, and falling trees were the major concerns across the region. According to their counties of residence, participants were divided into Coastal or Inland, and Heavily Impacted or Less Impacted categories. Inland participants expressed a significantly higher concern for wind, tornadoes, falling trees, and rainfall/inland flooding than Coastal participants. Participants from Heavily Impacted counties showed greater concern for storm surge, tornadoes, and falling trees than participants from Less Impacted counties. These results reinforce the continued need for all parties of the weather enterprise to strengthen communication capabilities with EMs and the public for extreme events.

中文翻译:

第五类飓风迈克尔的交流与危害感知课程

迈克尔飓风于2018年10月10日登陆,这是该时期美国的第三次萨菲尔·辛普森飓风规模(SSHWS)5级风暴。风暴的强度,迅速的加剧,十月的登陆,内陆高风和不常见的登陆位置,都使应急管理人员(EMs)和广播气象学家(BMs)的沟通和准备工作变得复杂,同时也使公众的理解蒙上了阴影。对EM,BM和一个小的公众样本进行了访谈,以听取他们的故事并确定和理解共同的主题和经验。这些信息和先前的研究被用于为大型样本公共调查的问题提供信息。结果表明,我们的样本中有61%没有撤离,大约80%的受访者低估了强度,误解了或者不相信预测,或者意识到危险已经来不及撤离。一项对公众的调查显示,危害程度表明,该地区主要关注风,龙卷风和倒下的树木。根据所居住的县,参与者分为沿海或内陆以及重灾或轻灾类别。与沿海地区的参与者相比,内陆地区的参与者对风,龙卷风,倒下的树木和降雨/内陆洪水的关注要高得多。重灾县的参与者比低灾县的参与者更加关注风暴潮,龙卷风和倒下的树木。
更新日期:2020-07-30
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