Persistent and unsustainable current account deficits imply continuous foreign borrowing. In this study, we investigate the causal relationship between Turkish current account deficits (CAD) and growth, by using both traditional Granger and Frequency Domain Causality Tests developed by Breitung and Candelon (BC hereafter) over the period of first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2017, since there is scarcely any definitive empirical study out there yet, systematically exploring the causal relationship between GDP growth and current account over short- and longer run. The results of the study indicate that rising CAD unidirectionally causes growth in both short- and medium-run. Thus, since CAD is financed mostly by short-term debt-creating inflows and Turkey is considered to be the most credit-dependent country across all emerging markets, while Turkey’s excessive reliance on foreign credit comes at the cost of extremely volatile real GDP growth rates, our result raises many doubts about sustainability and stability of future growth trajectory in Turkey.

持续和不可持续的经常账户赤字意味着持续的国外借款。在这项研究中，我们通过使用Breitung和Candelon（以下称BC）在2002年第一季度至第一季度之间开发的传统Granger和频域因果关系检验，研究了土耳其经常账户赤字（CAD）与经济增长之间的因果关系。 2017年第2季度，由于几乎没有确定的实证研究，因此系统地探索了短期和长期GDP增长与经常账户之间的因果关系。研究结果表明，CAD的单向上升会导致短期和中期的增长。因此，由于加元主要依靠短期债务产生的资金来提供资金，并且土耳其被认为是所有新兴市场中最依赖信贷的国家，