Probabilistic earthquake loss models are widely used in the (re)insurance industry to assess the seismic risk of portfolios of assets and to inform pricing mechanisms for (re)insurance contracts, as well as by international and national organizations with the remit to assess and reduce disaster risk. Such models include components characterizing the seismicity of the region, the ground motion intensity, the building inventory, and the vulnerability of the assets exposed to ground shaking. Each component is characterized by a large uncertainty, which can be classified as aleatory or epistemic. Modern seismic risk assessment models often neglect some sources of uncertainty, which can lead to biased loss estimates or to an underestimation of the existing uncertainty. This study focuses on exploring and quantifying the impact of a number of sources of uncertainties from each component of an earthquake loss model to the loss estimates. To this end, the residential exposure of Guatemala and Guatemala City were used as case studies. Moreover, a comparison of the predicted losses for an insured portfolio in the country between OpenQuake-engine and a vendor catastrophe platform was performed, assessing the potential application of OpenQuake in the (re)insurance industry. The findings from this study suggest that the uncertainty in the hazard component has the most significant effect on the loss estimates.

概率地震损失模型在（再保险）行业中广泛使用，以评估资产组合的地震风险并为（再）保险合同定价机制提供信息，国际和国家组织也有责任评估和减少灾难风险。这样的模型包括表征该地区地震活动性，地震动强度，建筑物清单以及暴露于地震动的资产的脆弱性的成分。每个组成部分都具有很大的不确定性，可以分为偶然性或认知性。现代地震风险评估模型通常会忽略某些不确定性来源，这可能导致损失估计有偏差或对现有不确定性的低估。这项研究的重点是探索和量化从地震损失模型的各个组成部分到损失估计的许多不确定性源的影响。为此，将危地马拉和危地马拉城的住宅暴露作为案例研究。此外，还比较了OpenQuake引擎和供应商灾难平台在该国的被保险资产组合的预计损失，从而评估了OpenQuake在（再）保险行业中的潜在应用。这项研究的结果表明，危害成分的不确定性对损失估计值的影响最大。比较了OpenQuake引擎和供应商灾难平台在该国的保险资产组合的预计损失，评估了OpenQuake在（再）保险行业中的潜在应用。这项研究的结果表明，危害成分的不确定性对损失估计值的影响最大。比较了OpenQuake引擎和供应商灾难平台在该国的保险资产组合的预计损失，评估了OpenQuake在（再）保险行业中的潜在应用。这项研究的结果表明，危害成分的不确定性对损失估计值的影响最大。