ABSTRACT

The literature on decision biases in the newsvendor model assumes classical version of the problem where the distribution of random demand is known. This context is decision-making under risk. In many real-life settings, firms are not able to elicit complete and exact information about the demand distribution. This results in decision-making under ambiguity. We examine the newsvendor ordering preferences under ambiguity. Our study is the first attempt in behavioural operations management research to examine the biases in newsvendor decisions under ambiguity. We design experiments to understand the ordering preferences under ambiguity and risk. The experimental results show that subjects deviate from the normative benchmarks. We observe ‘pull-to-center’ bias in newsvendor decisions under ambiguity. We also observe that subjects exhibit ‘asymmetry in ordering’. Both these biases have significant implications for both theory and practice. Our research is a building block for research in a variety of normative models in operations management literature where ambiguity in demand is a highly relevant context for decision-making.

摘要

报童模型中关于决策偏差的文献假设了问题的经典版本，其中随机需求的分布是已知的。这种背景是风险下的决策。在许多现实生活中，企业无法获得关于需求分布的完整和准确的信息。这导致决策模棱两可. 我们在歧义下检查报摊的订购偏好。我们的研究是行为运营管理研究中的首次尝试，以检查在模棱两可的情况下报贩决策的偏差。我们设计实验来理解模糊和风险下的排序偏好。实验结果表明，受试者偏离了规范基准。我们在模棱两可的情况下观察到报贩决策中的“拉到中心”偏差。我们还观察到受试者表现出“排序不对称”。这两种偏见对理论和实践都有重大影响。我们的研究是运营管理文献中各种规范模型研究的基石，其中需求的模糊性是与决策高度相关的背景。