ABSTRACT Reliable seasonal forecasting of water resources variability may be of great value for agriculture and energy management in Ethiopia. This work aims to develop statistical forecasting of seasonal total water storage (TWS) anomalies in Ethiopia using sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure indices. Because of the spatial and temporal variability of TWS over the country, Ethiopia is divided into four regions each having similar TWS dynamics. Periods of long-term water deficit observed in GRACE TWS products for the region are found to coincide with periods of meteorological drought. Multiple linear regression is employed to generate seasonal forecasting models for each region. We find that the skill of the resulting models varies from region to region, with R 2 from 0.33 to 0.73 and correlation from 0.27 to 0.77 between predicted and observed values (using leave-one-out cross-validation). The skill of the models is better than the climatology in all regions.

中文翻译：

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预测埃塞俄比亚干旱管理的陆地储水量

摘要 水资源变化的可靠季节性预测可能对埃塞俄比亚的农业和能源管理具有重要价值。这项工作旨在利用海面温度和海平面压力指数对埃塞俄比亚的季节性总蓄水量 (TWS) 异常进行统计预测。由于全国 TWS 的时空变异性，埃塞俄比亚被分为四个区域，每个区域都具有相似的 TWS 动态。发现在该地区的 GRACE TWS 产品中观察到的长期缺水时期与气象干旱时期相吻合。采用多元线性回归为每个区域生成季节性预测模型。我们发现所得模型的技能因地区而异，R 2 从 0.33 到 0.73，相关性从 0.27 到 0。77 预测值和观察值之间（使用留一法交叉验证）。模型的技术优于所有地区的气候学。