The study investigates the future climate change in the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Himalaya, India, by the end of the twenty-first century under 3 emission scenarios and highlights the changes in the distribution of the prevalent climate zones in the region. The multi-model climate high-resolution projections for the baseline period (1961–1990) are validated against the observed climate variables from 8 meteorological stations in the region. The temperature projections from the GFDL CM2.1 model are found in good agreement with the observations; however, no single model investigated in the present study reasonably simulates precipitation and therefore multi-model ensemble is used for precipitation projections. The average annual temperature is projected to increase by 4.5 °C, 3.98 °C, and 6.93 °C by the end of the twenty-first century under A1B, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, an insignificant variation in precipitation projection is observed under all the 3 scenarios. The analysis indicates that, unlike the 13 climate zones under the updated Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme, the J&K Himalaya broadly falls into 10 main climate zones only namely, “3 subtropical (~ 11%), 4 temperate (~ 19%), and 3 cold desert (~ 70%) zones”. The projected climate change under the 3 emission scenarios indicates significant changes in the distribution of prevalent climate zones. The cold desert climate zone in the Ladakh region would shrink by ~ 22% and correspondingly the subtropical and temperate zones would expand due to the projected climate change. This information is vital for framing robust policies for adaptation and mitigation of the climate change impacts on various socio-economic and ecological sectors in the region.

中文翻译：

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印度查谟和克什米尔喜马拉雅地区二十一世纪末气候情景，使用集合气候模型

该研究调查了印度查谟和克什米尔 (J&K) 喜马拉雅地区 21 世纪末在 3 种排放情景下的未来气候变化，并突出了该地区流行气候带分布的变化。基线期（1961-1990 年）的多模式气候高分辨率预测根据该地区 8 个气象站的观测气候变量进行了验证。GFDL CM2.1 模型的温度预测与观测结果非常吻合；然而，本研究中研究的单一模型没有合理地模拟降水，因此多模型集合用于降水预测。到 21 世纪末，在 A1B 条件下，年平均气温预计将分别上升 4.5 °C、3.98 °C 和 6.93 °C，分别是 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 场景。相比之下，在所有 3 种情景下都观察到降水预测的微小变化。分析表明，与更新后的 Köppen-Geiger 气候分类方案下的 13 个气候区不同，J&K 喜马拉雅山大致分为 10 个主要气候区，即“3 亚热带（~11%）、4 温带（~19%）、和 3 个寒冷的沙漠 (~ 70%) 区域”。3种排放情景下的预测气候变化表明，流行气候区的分布发生了显着变化。由于预计的气候变化，拉达克地区的寒冷沙漠气候区将缩小约 22%，相应地，亚热带和温带地区将扩大。