Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies.,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America ( IF 11.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-11 , DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1917036117
Samantha Joel ₁ , Paul W Eastwick ₂ , Colleen J Allison ₃ , Ximena B Arriaga ₄ , Zachary G Baker ₅ , Eran Bar-Kalifa ₆ , Sophie Bergeron ₇ , Gurit E Birnbaum ₈ , Rebecca L Brock ₉ , Claudia C Brumbaugh ₁₀ , Cheryl L Carmichael ₁₁ , Serena Chen ₁₂ , Jennifer Clarke ₁₃ , Rebecca J Cobb ₁₄ , Michael K Coolsen ₁₅ , Jody Davis ₁₆ , David C de Jong ₁₇ , Anik Debrot ₁₈ , Eva C DeHaas ₃ , Jaye L Derrick ₅ , Jami Eller ₁₉ , Marie-Joelle Estrada ₂₀ , Ruddy Faure ₂₁ , Eli J Finkel ₂₂ , R Chris Fraley ₂₃ , Shelly L Gable ₂₄ , Reuma Gadassi-Polack ₂₅ , Yuthika U Girme ₃ , Amie M Gordon ₂₆ , Courtney L Gosnell ₂₇ , Matthew D Hammond ₂₈ , Peggy A Hannon ₂₉ , Cheryl Harasymchuk ₃₀ , Wilhelm Hofmann ₃₁ , Andrea B Horn ₃₂ , Emily A Impett ₃₃ , Jeremy P Jamieson ₂₀ , Dacher Keltner ₁₁ , James J Kim ₃₄ , Jeffrey L Kirchner ₃₅ , Esther S Kluwer _{36,

37} , Madoka Kumashiro ₃₈ , Grace Larson ₃₉ , Gal Lazarus ₄₀ , Jill M Logan ₃ , Laura B Luchies ₄₁ , Geoff MacDonald ₃₄ , Laura V Machia ₄₂ , Michael R Maniaci ₄₃ , Jessica A Maxwell ₄₄ , Moran Mizrahi ₄₅ , Amy Muise ₄₆ , Sylvia Niehuis ₁₄ , Brian G Ogolsky ₄₇ , C Rebecca Oldham ₁₄ , Nickola C Overall ₄₄ , Meinrad Perrez ₄₈ , Brett J Peters ₄₉ , Paula R Pietromonaco ₅₀ , Sally I Powers ₅₀ , Thery Prok ₂₄ , Rony Pshedetzky-Shochat ₄₀ , Eshkol Rafaeli _{40,

51} , Erin L Ramsdell ₉ , Maija Reblin ₅₂ , Michael Reicherts ₄₈ , Alan Reifman ₁₄ , Harry T Reis ₂₀ , Galena K Rhoades ₅₃ , William S Rholes ₅₄ , Francesca Righetti ₂₁ , Lindsey M Rodriguez ₅₅ , Ron Rogge ₂₀ , Natalie O Rosen ₅₆ , Darby Saxbe ₅₇ , Haran Sened ₄₀ , Jeffry A Simpson ₁₉ , Erica B Slotter ₅₈ , Scott M Stanley ₅₃ , Shevaun Stocker ₅₉ , Cathy Surra ₆₀ , Hagar Ter Kuile ₃₆ , Allison A Vaughn ₆₁ , Amanda M Vicary ₆₂ , Mariko L Visserman _{34,

46} , Scott Wolf ₃₅

Affiliation

Department of Psychology, Western University, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada;
Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616.
Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada.
Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
Department of Psychology, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204.
Department of Psychology, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva 8410501, Israel.
Department of Psychology, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada.
School of Psychology, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, Herzliya 4610101, Israel.
Department of Psychology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68588.
Department of Psychology, Queens College & Graduate Center, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367.
Department of Psychology, Brooklyn College & Graduate Center, City University of New York, Brooklyn, NY 11210.
Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Department of Psychology, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918.
Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409.
Department of Management, Marketing, and Entrepreneurship, Shippensburg University, Shippensburg, PA 17257.
Department of Psychology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284.
Department of Psychology, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723.
Institute of Psychology, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627.
Department of Experimental and Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Psychology and the Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208.
Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820.
Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.
Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
Department of Psychology, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY 10570.
School of Psychology, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6012, New Zealand.
Department of Health Services, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
Department of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada.
Department of Psychology, Ruhr University Bochum, 44801 Bochum, Germany.
Department of Psychology and the University Research Priority Program "Dynamics of Healthy Aging," University of Zurich, 8006 Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Psychology, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada.
Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada.
Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.
Department of Psychology, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Department of Psychology, Radboud University, 6525 HR Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Department of Psychology, Goldsmiths, University of London, London SE14 6NW, United Kingdom.
Social Cognition Center Cologne, University of Cologne, 50923 Cologne, Germany.
Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel.
Center for Social Research, Calvin University, Grand Rapids, MI 49546.
Department of Psychology, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244.
Department of Psychology, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431.
School of Psychology, University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand.
Department of Behavioral Sciences and Psychology, Ariel University Center of Samaria, Ariel 44837, Israel.
Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
Department of Human Development and Family Studies, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820.
Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland.
Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003.
Department of Psychology, Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
Department of Health Outcomes & Behavior, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL 33612.
Department of Psychology, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843.
Department of Psychology, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701.
Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Villanova University, Villanova, PA 19085.
Human Behavior, Justice, and Diversity Department, University of Wisconsin, Superior, WI 54880.
Department of Human Development and Family Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.
Department of Psychology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182.
Department of Psychology, Illinois Wesleyan University, Bloomington, IL 61701.

Given the powerful implications of relationship quality for health and well-being, a central mission of relationship science is explaining why some romantic relationships thrive more than others. This large-scale project used machine learning (i.e., Random Forests) to 1) quantify the extent to which relationship quality is predictable and 2) identify which constructs reliably predict relationship quality. Across 43 dyadic longitudinal datasets from 29 laboratories, the top relationship-specific predictors of relationship quality were perceived-partner commitment, appreciation, sexual satisfaction, perceived-partner satisfaction, and conflict. The top individual-difference predictors were life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, and attachment anxiety. Overall, relationship-specific variables predicted up to 45% of variance at baseline, and up to 18% of variance at the end of each study. Individual differences also performed well (21% and 12%, respectively). Actor-reported variables (i.e., own relationship-specific and individual-difference variables) predicted two to four times more variance than partner-reported variables (i.e., the partner’s ratings on those variables). Importantly, individual differences and partner reports had no predictive effects beyond actor-reported relationship-specific variables alone. These findings imply that the sum of all individual differences and partner experiences exert their influence on relationship quality via a person’s own relationship-specific experiences, and effects due to moderation by individual differences and moderation by partner-reports may be quite small. Finally, relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables. This collective effort should guide future models of relationships.

中文翻译：

机器学习发现了43个纵向夫妇研究中最可靠的自我报告关系质量预测指标。

鉴于关系质量对健康和福祉的强大影响，关系科学的中心任务是解释为什么某些浪漫关系比其他婚姻更繁荣。这个使用机器学习（即随机森林）的大型项目的目的是：1）量化可预测关系质量的程度，以及2）识别可可靠预测关系质量的结构。在来自29个实验室的43个二进制纵向数据集中，关系质量的最高特定于关系的预测变量是感知伙伴的承诺，欣赏，性满意度，感知伙伴的满意度和冲突。个人差异最高的预测指标是生活满意度，负面影响，抑郁，避免依恋和依恋焦虑。总体，特定于关系的变量在基线时预测最多有45％的方差，在每个研究结束时最多可以预测18％的方差。个体差异也表现良好（分别为21％和12％）。参与者报告的变量（即，自己的特定于关系的和个人差异的变量）预测的方差是伙伴报告的变量（即，伙伴对这些变量的评级）的两倍到四倍。重要的是，个体差异和合作伙伴报告仅凭演员报告的关系特定变量没有任何预测作用。这些发现表明，所有个体差异和伴侣经历的总和会通过一个人自己的特定于关系的经历而对关系质量产生影响，而且由于个人差异和合作伙伴报告而受到的影响可能很小。最后，从自我报告变量的任何组合中，人际关系质量的变化（即，在研究过程中人际关系质量的增减）在很大程度上是不可预测的。这种集体努力应该指导未来的关系模型。

更新日期：2020-08-11

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