Amid the current COVID-19 crisis, everyone has been called upon to offer assistance. What can historians contribute? One obvious approach is to draw on our knowledge of the history of epidemics and proclaim the lessons of history. But does history offer clear lessons? To make their expertise relevant, some historians assert that there are enduring patterns in how societies respond to all epidemics that can inform our experiences today. Others argue that there are informative analogies between specific past epidemics and our present crisis, for instance between COVID-19 and prior outbreaks of SARS or influenza. Both strategies can be pursued, but each must be done with care. It is certainly possible to map COVID-19 onto the classic dramatic structure of an epidemic, but we cannot yet know how it will end, a failure of prognostication that constrains the advice we can offer. It is likewise possible to draw on the history of medical therapeutics and public health interventions to identify the risks we face of both underuse and overuse of our remedies, but we cannot yet judge whether our current commitment to heroic social distancing is warranted. While historians can offer insight, we must temper our contributions with humility.

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COVID-19、历史和谦逊

在当前的 COVID-19 危机中，每个人都被要求提供援助。历史学家能做出什么贡献？一种明显的方法是利用我们对流行病历史的了解并宣讲历史的教训。但是历史提供了明确的教训吗？为了使他们的专业知识具有相关性，一些历史学家断言，社会如何应对所有流行病都有持久的模式，可以为我们今天的经历提供信息。其他人则认为，过去的特定流行病与我们当前的危机之间存在信息类比，例如 COVID-19 与之前爆发的 SARS 或流感之间。这两种策略都可以采用，但每种策略都必须小心谨慎。当然可以将 COVID-19 映射到流行病的经典戏剧结构上，但我们尚不知道它将如何结束，预测的失败限制了我们可以提供的建议。同样可以借鉴医学治疗和公共卫生干预的历史来确定我们面临的药物使用不足和过度使用的风险，但我们还无法判断我们目前对英勇的社会疏远的承诺是否有道理。虽然历史学家可以提供洞察力，但我们必须谦虚地调整我们的贡献。